Earnings live: Walmart and Gap stocks pop on raised guidance, Nvidia erases post-earnings gains

With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported and Q3 EPS growth tracking about +13.1% year-over-year, earnings season is broadly positive but mixed by sector: Nvidia beat and raised its outlook, with CEO Jensen Huang calling Blackwell demand “off the charts,” a CFO reiterating a $500 billion Blackwell/Rubin revenue pipeline and the stock initially jumping over 5% (adding roughly $300 billion to market value) — a result that lifted chip peers but underscores supply constraints into 2026–27 and makes Nvidia a key market mover. Retail results were bifurcated: Walmart topped estimates with 4.5% comp growth and raised guidance, Gap beat and nudged up its full-year sales outlook, while Target and Home Depot trimmed guidance and Bath & Body Works cut forecasts (its stock plunging ~23%) as management outlined a strategic reset. Other notable beats included Intuit, TJX, Lowe’s and Medtronic, while Palo Alto Networks beat revenue estimates but saw its stock fall after announcing an acquisition of Chronosphere, illustrating that positive prints are being parsed for forward guidance and strategic execution as much as headline beats.

Analysis

Earnings season is broadly constructive with 92% of S&P 500 companies reported and analysts projecting a 13.1% year‑over‑year rise in Q3 EPS, up from 12% in Q2 and well above the 7.9% expectation entering the quarter, signaling widespread operational resilience but with notable sector divergence. Nvidia delivered a top‑and‑bottom‑line beat, an outlook that lifted the stock over 5% (adding roughly $300 billion in market value), CEO Jensen Huang called Blackwell demand "off the charts," and CFO Colette Kress reiterated visibility to a $500 billion Blackwell/Rubin revenue pipeline through 2026 while management and CFRA flagged supply constraints persisting into 2026–27. Retail results are bifurcated: Walmart posted 4.5% same‑store sales growth, raised guidance and flagged a K‑shaped consumer dynamic with holiday strength so far, Gap beat with $0.62 EPS on $3.9 billion revenue and raised its revenue lower bound, while Target, Home Depot and Bath & Body Works cut guidance and/or slashed outlooks (BBWI stock fell ~23%). Other corporate beats (Intuit EPS $1.59 on $3.9 billion revenue; TJX EPS $1.28 on $15.1 billion revenue with raised guidance; Medtronic outperformance) underscore that investors are increasingly parsing forward guidance, strategic actions (PANW’s Chronosphere deal) and execution risk rather than treating beats as uniform positives, consistent with a moderately positive market sentiment score (0.45) and meaningful market impact (0.65).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider maintaining or selectively increasing exposure to Nvidia and core AI supply chain names (as peers AMD, Micron and Broadcom reacted positively) given the company's beat, $500 billion pipeline visibility and supply‑constraint commentary, while closely monitoring Q4 guidance and any signs of order-book deceleration
• Favor high‑value, defensive retail exposure such as Walmart and off‑price operators like TJX that raised guidance after beats, and reduce weight or hedge exposure to discretionary names that cut guidance or face strategic resets (Bath & Body Works, Target, Home Depot) until consumer trends and guidance stabilize
• Treat earnings beats accompanied by material M&A or turnaround plans (Palo Alto Networks’ Chronosphere deal, Bath & Body Works’ reset) as execution risk events; reassess positions and require clear integration/turnaround milestones before adding exposure
• Use near‑term catalysts—Nvidia’s upcoming guidance, early Black Friday sales data, and corporate commentary on consumer cohorts—as primary monitoring triggers and consider option hedges around NVDA given implied post‑earnings move expectations