Kepler predicts CSI 300 index to rally 35% higher after bottoming out

Kepler analysis indicates the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index bottomed in February after a 47% decline, projecting a 100-120% rally from its 3,100 point low to 6,200-6,800 by February 2026, representing approximately 35% upside from current levels. While the index has met a prior technical target, potentially triggering short-term profit-taking and a two-month sideways consolidation, Kepler maintains a long-term bullish outlook towards higher targets and a potential revisit of its historical peak.

Analysis

Based on technical analysis from Kepler, the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index appears to have formed a major market bottom in February after a 47% decline, mirroring patterns from the 2015-16 and 2009-13 bear markets. The research firm projects a significant long-term rally of 100-120% from the 3,100-point low, targeting a range of 6,200-6,800 by February 2026, which implies an approximate 35% upside from current levels. In the near term, the index has reached a critical technical resistance level in the 4,500-4,550 range, which could trigger a period of profit-taking leading to a 5% pullback and a consolidation phase lasting up to two months. Despite this potential short-term sideways movement, Kepler's long-term thesis remains bullish, with subsequent targets at 5,275 and an eventual revisit of the historical peak. The analysis also provides specific timing markers for potential turning points, including a potential low in mid-September and mid-November.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long-term investors may consider the current environment a strategic opportunity to build or increase exposure to China A-shares, given the bullish multi-year forecast projecting a 35% upside.
• Given the index has reached a key resistance zone, investors should anticipate near-term volatility and a potential 5% pullback, which could offer a more attractive entry point for new capital deployment.
• Tactical traders should monitor the specific mid-month timing signals for September, October, and November as potential inflection points for short-term directional changes in the CSI 300 index.