Russian forces launched a large overnight combined missile and drone barrage — reportedly 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles, seven Kalibrs, one Iskander and some 476 drones (roughly 300 Shaheds) — killing at least 26 civilians in Ternopil, injuring at least 139, striking residential and energy infrastructure and forcing emergency power outages despite Ukraine intercepting a large share of incoming munitions. Western reporting of a drafted 28‑point U.S.–Russia peace plan, which Kremlin officials deny, would reportedly force Ukraine to withdraw from parts of Donetsk, cap and strip key categories of its military and accept other concessions; ISW warns those terms would cede Ukraine’s Fortress Belt and other vital defensive positions, freeze the southern frontline in ways that materially favor Russia and set conditions for renewed aggression. On the battlefield Russia is making localized advances (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, Borova) and pressing around Kupyansk but continues to suffer logistics and attrition problems due to Ukrainian interdiction; Ukraine has also used ATACMS against targets in Russia. ISW reiterates that timely, sufficient Western military assistance and economic pressure remain the principal determinants of Ukraine’s ability to impose costs on Russia and prevent strategic consolidation by Moscow.
On the night of November 18–19 Russian forces reportedly launched 40 Kh‑101 cruise missiles, seven Kalibrs, one Iskander and roughly 476 drones (about 300 Shahed‑type), killing at least 26 civilians and injuring at least 139; a Kh‑101 reportedly struck a Ternopil high‑rise that accounted for 26 deaths and about 93 injuries. Ukraine reported intercepting 34 Kh‑101s, seven Kalibrs and 442 drones, but still recorded seven missiles and 34 drones striking 14 locations, damaging residential, transport and energy infrastructure and forcing emergency power outages across multiple oblasts. The concentrated strikes on civilian and energy targets underline sustained Russian long‑range strike capability and recurring downside operational and humanitarian risk to Ukrainian infrastructure. Western media reported a drafted 28‑point U.S.–Russia plan that would reportedly require Ukraine to withdraw from unoccupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, cap its military at ~50% of current strength and abandon key weapon categories; Kremlin officials deny the reports and the draft remains unconfirmed. ISW warns those terms would cede Ukraine’s Fortress Belt and other critical defensive positions, freeze the southern frontline in ways that favor Russia and set conditions for renewed aggression, creating a high‑impact geopolitical binary. The draft therefore represents a major policy risk that could either reduce fighting if enacted or materially worsen Ukraine’s long‑term defensive posture if implemented. ISW reports localized Russian advances near Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and Borova and assesses Russia will very likely complete seizures of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad even as Russian formations in Kupyansk suffer logistics shortfalls and attrition; Ukrainian interdiction is slowing Russian advances. Ukraine has also struck targets inside Russia with ATACMS and Ukrainian F‑16/Mirage pilots have intercepted over 1,300 air targets since August 2024, keeping demand for Western munitions and air‑defense systems high. ISW reiterates that timely, sufficient Western military assistance and economic measures are the principal determinants of Ukraine’s ability to impose battlefield costs on Russia, implying sustained geopolitical sensitivity for defense and energy markets.
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