Silver could outgain gold again in 2026, but may face some early headwinds

Ernest Hoffman is a crypto and market reporter for Kitco News with over 15 years of experience in writing, editing, broadcasting and producing market news and economic videos. The piece is a biographical byline noting his background (including establishing CEP News' broadcast division, partnerships with MSN and TMX, and a journalism degree from Concordia) and contact number, and contains no market data, financial results or actionable investment information.

Analysis

Market structure: With the signal limited to “crypto & digital assets” and a neutral take on X.TO, the immediate winners would be liquid, low-cost crypto miners, custodians and layer-2 builders if on-chain activity accelerates; losers are high fixed-cost streaming and legacy media companies that compete for ad dollars. Expect a 5–25% re-rating range over 3–12 months for assets tied to on-chain revenue vs. ad-supported media, depending on BTC direction and ad-spend data releases.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory action in the US/EU within 3–12 months (could wipe 30–60% off listed crypto exposure) and a large custodial hack or major exchange insolvency (weeks). Near-term (days–weeks) volatility will be driven by macro liquidity and weekly blockchain flows; medium-term (3–9 months) by regulatory guidance and quarterly ad-revenues; long-term (>12 months) by institutional adoption and monetization models.

Trade implications: Direct plays should be tactical size (1–3% portfolio) longs in crypto-exposed equities (miners/exchanges) on pullbacks >10% or on a BTC >15% move in 30 days; offset with shorts in ad-dependent media (streaming). Use limited-risk options: 3-month call spreads 20–30% OTM on Coinbase (COIN) or miners to capture asymmetric upside. Rotate 5–10% from long-duration media into digital-asset infrastructure if two consecutive quarters show sub-2% ad-revenue growth.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates rapid monetization of on-chain apps — a 20% sustained increase in on-chain fees/activity historically correlates with 15–40% upside in infrastructure equities within 3–9 months. Conversely, the market may be underpricing regulatory shock: a single adverse rule could compress multiples by >50%, so size positions small and hedge with index-protective puts when implied vol < realized vol.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2% long position in X.TO (or equivalent listed crypto-infrastructure name) if price falls >=10% from today or if BTC rallies >=15% within 30 days; set a hard stop-loss at -20% and target +40% within 6–12 months.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long 1–2% combined position in crypto miners (e.g., MARA, RIOT) and short 1% in ad-dependent media (e.g., DIS or NFLX) for a 3–9 month horizon; close if ad-revenue growth >+5% QoQ or miners underperform BTC by >15%.
• Buy 3-month call spreads (sell higher strike) on COIN sized to 1% portfolio to capture event-driven upside (select strikes ~25% OTM); if implied vol <50% consider increasing size to 2% but cap max loss to premium paid.
• Reduce pure-play streaming/media exposure by 50% if two consecutive quarterly reports show subscriber decline or ad-revenue growth <2%; redeploy 50% of proceeds into digital-asset infrastructure ETFs or cash (target redeploy within 30 days).