Invitation to Q4 Earnings Teleconference

Karnov Group will publish its Q4 and full-year 2025 report on 11 February 2026 at ~07:45 a.m. CET and host a webcasted telephone conference at 09:00 a.m. CET where CEO Pontus Bodelsson and CFO Magnus Hansson will present and take questions. Materials and the report will be available on the company website and via event platforms, with telephone registration required for verbal questions. Karnov, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm (KAR), is a European legal knowledge/workflow provider employing ~1,200 people and serving over 400,000 users; no financial results or guidance are included in the notice.

Analysis

Market structure: Karnov (KAR: Nasdaq Stockholm) sits in a high‑margin, recurring‑revenue niche—winners are digital legal/SaaS incumbents and data‑rich aggregators if KAR demonstrates >5–8% organic ARR growth; losers are legacy print/legal publishers losing share. Competitive dynamics hinge on content depth and workflow integration: a 200–300 bps EBITDA margin expansion would signal scalable SaaS pricing power and justify a 20–30% re‑rating versus peers like WKL.AS (Wolters Kluwer). Cross‑asset effects are muted but expect elevated equity volatility around the 11 Feb report (options IV spike), negligible sovereign bond impact, and minor EUR/SEK sensitivity to guidance-driven FX translation of revenue.

Risk assessment: Immediate (days): event risk — one‑day moves of ±10–20% are plausible given mid‑cap liquidity; short term (weeks–months): guidance, churn and any one‑off M&A costs will drive direction; long term (quarters/years): digital penetration and retention (>90% recurring revenue mix) determine valuation multiple. Tail risks include content‑licensing disputes, EU regulatory action on paid legal data, or a sudden drop in law‑firm budgets (>10% spend cut) that could compress ARR >5%. Hidden dependencies: integration of country ops (France/Spain/Portugal) and localized content pipelines; FX (EUR/SEK) can swing reported growth by ±150–200bps.

Trade implications: Direct play — consider a 2–3% portfolio long in KAR entered in two tranches (50% pre‑release, 50% post‑print) targeting +25% in 12 months if revenue beats consensus by ≥2% and adjusted EBITDA margin expands ≥200 bps; stop‑loss 12%. Options: to capture event volatility, buy a Feb 11–18 ATM straddle sized to 0.5–1.0% portfolio if implied vol < historical realized, or buy a 6‑month 15% OTM call spread as a cheaper upside bet. Pair trade: long KAR (2%) / short WKL.AS (1%) for 6–12 months if KAR prints faster SaaS ARPU growth (threshold +3–5ppt vs WKL). Exit on missed ARR guidance or churn increase >1ppt QoQ.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight Karnov’s ability to up‑sell workflow modules to its 400k users — a successful cross‑sell could lift ARPU +8–12% over 12–18 months, which markets may not price. Conversely, upside could be capped if management signals aggressive M&A spending; the market might punish buy‑and‑build wings despite long‑term value. Historical parallels: mid‑cap legal SaaS rollups often re‑rate after two consecutive quarters of margin expansion; failure to deliver the second quarter commonly leads to multi‑quarter underperformance. Unintended consequence: aggressive price increases to drive near‑term ARR could raise churn >1ppt and negate gains within two quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Karnov Group (KAR: Nasdaq Stockholm) split 50/50 pre/post 11 Feb report; add to position only if Q4 ARR/revenue beats consensus by ≥2% and adjusted EBITDA margin expands ≥200 bps; set a 12% stop‑loss and 12‑month target of +25%.
• Buy an event‑straddle on KAR sized to 0.5–1.0% of portfolio exposure for the Feb 11–18 window if implied volatility is lower than the 90‑day realized vol; alternatively purchase a 6‑month 15% OTM call spread (cost‑capped) to play structural upside while limiting premium decay.
• Initiate a pair trade: long KAR 2% / short Wolters Kluwer (WKL.AS) 1% for 6–12 months to express expected faster ARPU/ARR acceleration at Karnov; unwind if KAR churn increases >1ppt QoQ or WKL reports an unexpected strategic pivot.
• If KAR reports ARR growth <3% or QoQ churn rises >1ppt, establish a 1% short or buy 3‑month 10% OTM puts sized to cap downside; target a 3‑month horizon and take profits if stock falls ≥20%.
• Monitor within 30–60 days: headline ARR growth, reported churn, adjusted EBITDA margin, and management M&A guidance—add incremental exposure only if ARR growth >5% and margin expansion ≥150–200 bps versus prior year.