“America First” is now “Trump First”

Steven Okun of APAC Advisors indicates that Donald Trump's trade agenda is now largely unchecked, with traditional governmental and legal constraints significantly weakened, positioning market volatility as the primary limiting force. This 'Trump First' approach, likened to running the US as a personal store, poses a substantial risk of reigniting a global trade war, particularly impacting Asia, ahead of a critical July 9 tariff deadline.

Analysis

According to analysis from Steven Okun of APAC Advisors, the current US administration's trade policy, characterized as evolving from "America First" to "Trump First," operates with significantly diminished constraints from traditional governmental and legal oversight. This shift elevates market volatility to the primary force capable of limiting executive actions on trade. The approach is likened to managing the US economy as a personal entity, increasing unpredictability for market participants. An imminent tariff deadline on July 9 poses a substantial near-term risk, potentially triggering a renewed global trade war with a specific focus on Asian economies. This situation suggests a heightened level of geopolitical risk where policy decisions could become more erratic, potentially being reversed or intensified based on market reactions rather than institutional processes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline as a key catalyst for heightened market volatility, particularly for assets with significant exposure to Asian markets and global supply chains.
• Given that market volatility is identified as the main constraint on policy, it is prudent to review portfolio allocations and consider hedging strategies against unpredictable, politically-driven market downturns.
• The characterization of trade policy as 'Trump First' implies a less predictable, more personalized decision-making framework, warranting a re-evaluation of long-term holdings in sectors heavily dependent on stable international trade relations.