Earnings Preview: Mondelez (MDLZ) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Mondelez (MDLZ) is projected to report a 20.9% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 earnings to $0.68 per share, despite an anticipated 6.1% revenue increase to $8.85 billion, with results expected July 29. While the company has historically beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, its current Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.59% and Zacks Rank of #3 indicate recent bearish analyst sentiment and make it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat for the upcoming report. Investors should note this outlook, as MDLZ does not appear to be a strong candidate for an upside surprise.

Analysis

Mondelez (MDLZ) is facing a challenging Q2 2025 earnings report, with consensus estimates pointing to a significant disconnect between top-line growth and profitability. The market anticipates a 6.1% year-over-year revenue increase to $8.85 billion, but a sharp 20.9% decline in earnings per share to $0.68. This divergence strongly implies substantial margin compression, which will be a key focal point for investors. While the company has a history of beating EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, current indicators suggest a more cautious outlook. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is negative at -0.59%, indicating that the most recent analyst revisions are bearish. This, combined with a neutral Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), makes a positive earnings surprise statistically less likely. The broader industry context, exemplified by peer Darling Ingredients (DAR) facing an even more severe projected earnings drop of 77.6%, suggests these margin pressures may be sector-wide rather than isolated to Mondelez.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should scrutinize the drivers of the expected 20.9% EPS decline, as the forecasted revenue growth indicates severe margin pressure is the primary concern.
• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -0.59% and a neutral Zacks Rank, positioning for a significant positive earnings surprise carries elevated risk, despite the company's strong historical beat record.
• Pay close attention to management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call for clarity on whether the margin headwinds are transitory or a more persistent structural issue.
• A neutral or cautiously hedged stance may be prudent ahead of the July 29 report, as the data suggests a higher probability of meeting or missing expectations rather than delivering a substantial beat.