'iPhone Fold' Arrival Expected to Cement Book-Style Era for Foldables

Counterpoint Research forecasts a 46% year-over-year jump in foldable smartphone panel shipments in 2026 driven primarily by Apple entering the category with its first book-style iPhone Fold (expected around mid-September next year), after which overall foldable shipments are projected to rise 14% in 2025 and 38% in 2026. The firm says book-type foldables will cement their dominance, push up average selling prices as consumers shift toward larger, tablet-like internal displays, and leave multi-fold formats with only low single-digit share. Samsung Display is positioned to be the primary beneficiary—its panel market share is expected to exceed 50% and it is reportedly supplying panels to Apple, with media reports citing a possible 22 million-panel order—implying meaningful upside for Samsung and its supply chain if demand and the Apple launch materialize.

Analysis

Counterpoint Research projects foldable smartphone panel shipments will jump 46% year‑over‑year in 2026, identifying Apple’s entry with a book‑type “iPhone Fold” as the main catalyst; Counterpoint also forecasts overall foldable shipments up 14% in 2025 and 38% in 2026, and expects Apple’s foldable to ship around mid‑September 2026. The firm expects book‑style foldables to become the dominant form factor in 2026, multi‑fold devices to hold only low single‑digit share, and consumer preference to shift toward larger, tablet‑like internal displays—trends that should lift average selling prices for foldable panels. Samsung Display is positioned to be the primary beneficiary with panel market share expected to top 50% and reports (ET News) citing a potential 22 million‑panel Apple order, while Samsung reportedly will supply Apple’s first foldable panels; Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold outsold the Flip in the early H2 2025 sales window, supporting demand for larger foldables. Upside for panel makers and upstream suppliers comes from combined volume and ASP expansion, but the deleted nature of the ET News report, execution risk around ramp timing, and demand uncertainty at launch are material near‑term risks that could lead to volatility in supplier revenues and margins.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider selective exposure to Samsung Display and panel‑supply chain suppliers ahead of the 2026 ramp, but size positions only after public confirmation of Apple panel contracts or firm order announcements
• Use Apple’s mid‑September 2026 launch and early sell‑through (compare to Galaxy Z Fold early‑window performance) as primary catalysts to add to positions; monitor ASPs and shipment data for validation
• Maintain hedged or limited exposure if order confirmations remain unclear, given the deleted 22 million‑panel report and execution/demand risk; consider options or reduced position sizing to protect against upside disappointment