Year-End Report 2025

Plejd reported strong 2025 results with Q4 net sales of TSEK 288,333 (+41.3% YoY) and FY net sales of TSEK 934,767 (+41.1% YoY). Q4 EBITDA was TSEK 104,121 (36.1% margin) and EBIT TSEK 80,169 (27.8% margin); full-year EBITDA TSEK 317,835 (34.0% margin) and EBIT TSEK 229,727 (24.6% margin). EPS rose to SEK 5.63 in the quarter and SEK 16.12 for the year, driven by product strength (TRM-01 thermostat, SPD-01 smart plug) and international expansion (notably the Netherlands); management expects further growth from new products (LPN-01) and software features in 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: Plejd’s 41% organic revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion to ~34% signals rising demand for differentiated smart-lighting hardware and software in Nordic and Benelux markets. Winners are platform-centric IoT vendors, channel partners offering installation services, and component suppliers (LED drivers, MCUs); losers are undifferentiated low-cost OEMs and incumbents that rely on legacy B2B channels. The shift increases Plejd’s pricing power for 12–24 months but invites scale competition that could pressure mid-term margins if unit demand slows.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are component shortages (LED drivers/MCUs), rapid margin compression from OEM competition, and regulatory privacy/commercial-building compliance changes; any one could erase >10–20% of forecast EBIT in 12 months. Immediate (days) risk: sentiment volatility on release/quarterly updates; short-term (3–6 months): channel execution in Sweden/Netherlands and LPN-01 launch readiness; long-term (12–36 months): platform lock-in vs. tech-platform takeovers. Hidden dependency: heavy concentration in TRM-01 and SPD-01 success—a single-product demand shock would materially hit growth.

Trade implications: Actionable plays: (1) establish a 2–3% long position in Plejd equity (or proxy via Global X Internet of Things ETF SNSR if illiquid) with stop-loss 12% and 12-month target +30–50% given current growth and margins. (2) Pair trade: long Plejd vs short large lighting incumbent (e.g., Signify/PHIA or Schneider/SU) sized 1:1 notional to capture growth premium over 6–12 months. (3) Buy a 9–12 month call spread (bull call) to leverage upside around LPN-01 launch while capping premium outlay.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight concentration risk—growth is product-driven (TRM-01) and could revert; margins may be temporarily elevated from roll-out economics and channel pricing early in lifecycle. Historical parallels: small smart-hardware winners often see 30–50% mean reversion when platform/retailer margins normalize or when acquired; monitor 30–90 day sell-through, return rates, and software ARR transition to detect early deceleration.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Plejd equity (or proxy with Global X Internet of Things ETF SNSR) today; set a hard stop-loss at -12% and a 12-month target of +30–50% to capture continued organic growth and margin expansion.
• Implement a pair trade: long Plejd (2% portfolio) vs short a large incumbent lighting/automation name (e.g., Signify PHIA or Schneider Electric SU) sized 1:1 notional, hold 6–12 months to capture relative share shift; tighten stops to 8% on the short leg.
• Buy a 9–12 month call spread on Plejd (or proxy ETF) with strikes roughly +15%/+40% to limit premium while retaining upside exposure to the LPN-01 commercial launch in 2026; allocate 0.5–1% of portfolio.
• Reduce generic exposure to low-margin consumer IoT hardware by 2–3% and reallocate to commercial/industrial automation names (e.g., ABB ABB, Schneider Electric SU) where recurring services can protect margins; reassess after 2 quarters or after monitoring sell-through and software ARR for 30–90 days.