‘Wicked: For Good’ Thursday Night Previews Around $20M+ – Box Office

Universal says Wicked: For Good generated $30.8M in Monday–Thursday previews (industry estimates put Thursday night alone at about $20M–$22M), topping comparable preview performances such as Fantastic Four’s $24.4M and last year’s Wicked $19.2M; Thursday previews began at 2 p.m. and included premium fan and Amazon sneak shows. While some forecasts eye a $175M+ opening, more conservative domestic estimates are $125M–$150M, with risk of a frontloaded weekend given the original’s heavy skew to female and 18–34 audiences and the prior film’s 63% U.S./Canada share of a $758.4M global haul; the sequel’s worldwide start is projected well north of $200M. Early reception shows very strong audience enthusiasm (Rotten Tomatoes audience ~97% vs 95% for the original, critic score ~70), suggesting robust fan turnout and the potential to set new opening records, though final weekend results remain to be seen.

Analysis

Universal reports Wicked: For Good generated $30.8M in Monday–Thursday previews, with industry estimates placing Thursday night alone at roughly $20M–$22M; previews included 2 PM Thursday shows, Amazon sneak screenings and Wednesday premium fan shows that materially lifted the total. Those preview figures exceed comparable early returns such as Disney/Marvel’s Fantastic Four (Thursday-only $24.4M) and top last year’s Wicked previews ($19.2M), signaling exceptional front-loaded demand among core fans.

Market forecasts diverge: some market participants project a $175M+ opening but the more conservative stateside range is $125M–$150M, with a global opening “well north of $200M.” Historical behavior of the franchise matters—last film’s previews were 42% of first-day gross, the prior opening skewed 72% female and 57% ages 18–34, and 63% of the prior film’s $758.4M global gross came from U.S./Canada—each raising the risk of a concentrated, frontloaded weekend.

Early reception shows a 97% Rotten Tomatoes audience score versus a 70 critic score, implying strong fan satisfaction but potential limited crossover to broader audiences. Key near-term indicators for longer-term revenue are Friday-to-Sunday decay, weekend totals relative to the $125M–$150M band, and international performance; these will determine whether opening records are truly at risk or the result of preview-heavy frontloading.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor Friday and cumulative weekend box office versus the $125M–$150M and $175M thresholds and treat outperformance above $150M as a catalyst to tactically increase exposure to theatrical-exposed media and exhibition names, but limit position size given frontloading risk
• If weekend receipts land in the lower end of the $125M–$150M band or show steep day-two declines, avoid adding exposure and consider trimming short-duration trades tied to opening-weekend sentiment
• Track international openings and audience/critic score trends (RT audience vs critic) and monitor AMZN’s promotional involvement for ancillary upside; use those signals to assess durability for follow-on revenue (licensing/streaming) before making larger studio/exhibitor allocations