Earnings call transcript: Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte Q2 2025 revenue beats estimates

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) reported strong Q2 2025 results, with total revenues increasing 16.8% to 3.4 billion pesos, significantly exceeding expectations by 15.08% due to an 11% rise in passenger traffic and robust commercial revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 19% to 2.6 billion pesos, maintaining a 74.6% margin, which overshadowed a 5.08% EPS miss and led to a 0.92% stock price increase, indicating investor focus on operational performance. The company projects mid to high single-digit traffic growth for the remainder of the year and continues to prioritize investment in Monterrey Airport as a key driver, while maintaining its dividend policy.

Analysis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) reported a robust second quarter for 2025, primarily driven by strong operational performance that overshadowed a minor earnings miss. Revenue grew 16.8% year-over-year to 3.4 billion pesos, significantly beating expectations by 15.08%, propelled by an 11% increase in passenger traffic to 7.2 million. This growth was concentrated in its Monterrey Airport, which experienced a 19% surge in international traffic and is the focus of 49% of planned investment under the new Master Development Program (MDP). Despite an EPS miss of 5.08%, the market reacted positively, with the stock climbing 0.92%, indicating investors are prioritizing strong top-line growth, a formidable 74.6% EBITDA margin, and a healthy balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.0x. Management has provided guidance for mid-to-high single-digit traffic growth for the remainder of the year and plans for a low single-digit tariff increase, reinforcing a stable outlook. The company also reaffirmed its dividend policy of distributing 85-95% of net income, a key factor for income-focused investors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the EPS miss as secondary to the strong revenue beat and operational momentum, particularly the strategic growth at the Monterrey hub, which supports a continued positive outlook.
• Monitor the finalization of the 2026-2030 Master Development Program (MDP) expected in December, as the approved tariff increases and investment commitments will be critical catalysts for future valuation.
• Income-oriented investors can take confidence in the reaffirmed dividend policy, which is expected to provide a stable and potentially growing yield given the company's projected growth in net income.
• Consider the concentration risk and reward associated with the Monterrey Airport, as its performance, driven by regional economic activity and near-shoring trends, is the primary determinant of the company's overall results.