Nvidia's price target raised at Needham after H20 chips set to see China sales

Needham has raised its price target on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to $200 from $160, maintaining a Buy rating, following the company's expectation to resume H20 chip sales to China, citing U.S. government assurances on export licenses. This development is crucial as prior export controls prevented $2.5 billion in Q1 FY26 shipments and halted nearly $8 billion in Q2 FY26 H20 orders; analysts now conservatively project $3 billion in quarterly H20 shipments starting Q3 FY26, further bolstered by potential new Blackwell GPU variants for the China market.

Analysis

Needham's price target on Nvidia (NVDA) has been increased to $200 from $160, supported by a 'Buy' rating, following indications that the company will resume H20 chip sales to China. This development is material, as U.S. export controls previously prevented $2.5 billion in shipments for Q1 FY26 and halted nearly $8 billion in orders for Q2 FY26. The resumption of sales reopens a significant revenue channel, with Needham analysts conservatively modeling $3 billion in H20 shipments per quarter beginning in Q3 FY26. Further bolstering the outlook, Nvidia is reportedly developing new Blackwell-based GPU variants (B30/B40/RTX 6000D) tailored for the China market, with potential shipments starting in the August/September timeframe. This two-pronged strategy—reintroducing H20 chips and developing new compliant products—signals a significant de-risking of Nvidia's China operations, which had been a key source of uncertainty for investors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The anticipated resumption of H20 chip sales to China represents a significant reversal of a major revenue headwind, supporting a bullish outlook and potentially validating the new $200 price target.
• Investors should monitor official U.S. government confirmation of export licenses and track Nvidia's initial shipment volumes in Q3 FY26 to verify if they meet or exceed the projected $3 billion quarterly run-rate.
• The development of new Blackwell-based GPUs for China is a critical long-term catalyst to watch, as it indicates a strategic effort to maintain market dominance despite ongoing trade restrictions.