Carlyle (CG) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Carlyle Group (CG) reported Q3 2025 revenue of $782.5 million, missing consensus estimates by 7.78% and representing a 12.6% year-over-year decline, though EPS of $0.98 met expectations. The firm's total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $474.06 billion also fell short of analyst projections. While total Global Private Equity revenues decreased significantly by 36.7% year-over-year and realized performance revenues plunged 77.6%, Carlyle saw strong growth in fee-related performance revenues (+30.9%) and realized principal investment income (+444%). These mixed results contributed to the stock's underperformance against the S&P 500 over the last month.

Analysis

Carlyle Group (CG) reported Q3 2025 revenue of $782.5 million, marking a 12.6% year-over-year decrease and missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $848.51 million by 7.78%. Despite the top-line shortfall, the company's EPS of $0.98 met analyst expectations, showing a slight increase from $0.95 in the year-ago quarter, indicating effective cost management or other income streams.

Total Assets Under Management (AUM) at quarter-end stood at $474.06 billion, falling short of the $478.66 billion analyst estimate, with Global Private Equity AUM also missing projections. While overall Global Private Equity revenues declined by 36.7% year-over-year, certain segments demonstrated strength, such as fee-related performance revenues which grew 30.9% year-over-year to $47.5 million, exceeding estimates. Realized principal investment income also surged by 444% to $49.5 million, significantly beating expectations.

Conversely, realized performance revenues saw a substantial 77.6% year-over-year decline to $61.7 million, missing the $170.13 million estimate. Fund management fees, however, increased 9% year-over-year to $573.9 million, slightly above analyst forecasts. The mixed financial results, particularly the revenue miss and AUM shortfall, likely contributed to Carlyle's stock underperforming the S&P 500, returning -11.2% over the past month compared to the S&P 500's -0.2%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Carlyle's AUM growth trajectory and the sustainability of its fee-related performance and principal investment income, given the overall revenue miss.
• Evaluate the impact of the significant decline in realized performance revenues on future earnings stability and the firm's ability to monetize its private equity investments.
• Consider the stock's recent underperformance relative to the broader market and the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, which suggests a neutral near-term outlook.