Invitation to press and analyst conference

Holmen will publish its year‑end report for January–December 2025 at lunchtime on Friday 30 January, followed by a press and analyst conference at 14:30 CET to be presented by CEO Henrik Sjölund and CFO Stefan Loréhn via webcast and telephone dial‑in. The notice reiterates company fundamentals: Holmen employs roughly 3,500 people, reported net sales in 2024 of just under SEK 23 billion, and is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm (Large Cap). The release provides logistics for analysts and investors but contains no earnings detail or guidance.

Analysis

Market structure: The Jan 30 Holmen year‑end release (HOLM.ST) is a classic event for re‑rating an integrated forest owner — winners are balance‑sheet‑strong, land‑rich producers and renewable energy/packaging peers if Holmen reports resilient pulp prices or higher EBITDA/ha; losers are pure commodity pulp mills with higher leverage. Expect a bid/offer shift and 5–15% intra‑day moves on surprises; a clear beat could tighten sector spreads and lift Nordic paper/pulp peers within 48–72 hours. Cross‑asset: a negative surprise would pressure HY corporates in Swedish forestry and weigh SEK versus EUR (risk‑off), while positive guidance supports SEK and timber/pulp commodity spreads.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include sudden Swedish forestry policy changes (harvest quotas or protected‑land expansion >5–10% of managed hectares), major storm/fungal losses (>10% standing volume) or sharp pulp price collapse (>20% YoY) — each could inflict >20% equity shock. Immediate (days): earnings volatility and guidance; short (0–3 months): pulp price and FX; long (3–18 months): structural demand from packaging and carbon/ESG monetization. Hidden dependencies: stumpage price transparency, rounding IFRS biological asset accounting and energy credits materially swing reported EBITDA.

Trade implications: Direct: consider a tactical 2–3% long in HOLM.ST ahead of Jan 30 only if cost basis acceptable, with hard stop −10% and profit trim +15% within 3 months. Options: buy a straddle/ATM call+put expiring 30–45 days if implied vol <30% and you expect >8% move; sell a short‑dated iron‑condor if IV >40% to harvest premium. Pair: long HOLM.ST vs short SCA‑B.ST (1:1 ratio) for 3–6 months if you believe land ownership and integrated assets outperform pure pulp exposure.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice the long‑term optionality of carbon credits and biomass power margins from Holmen’s estate — if management signals monetization paths, upside >20% is plausible within 12 months. Conversely the market can overpay for cyclical rebounds; a modest miss could create a 10–20% buying opportunity if pulp spreads remain stable. Track PIX pulp indices, Swedish stumpage notices and Holmen’s biological asset disclosure in the next 30 days as the high‑leverage catalysts that will validate or invalidate these contrarian views.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 2–3% long position in HOLM.ST up to Jan 29 (close 25% prior to open on Jan 30 if uncertain), using a disciplined stop at −10% and plan to trim 50% at +15% within 3 months; rationale: event‑driven asymmetric risk/reward around guidance and commodity pass‑through.
• If implied volatility for HOLM options is <30%, buy a 30–45 day ATM straddle sized for a 1% portfolio exposure to capture an anticipated 8%+ move; if IV >40%, sell a 14–21 day iron‑condor to collect premium instead.
• Enter a 1:1 pair trade long HOLM.ST vs short SCA‑B.ST for a 3–6 month horizon (allocate 1–2% net exposure) betting on integrated forest ownership and energy/ESG optionality outperformance; close or rebalance if relative move exceeds 8% within 2 months.
• If Holmen misses and the share price gaps down >8% intraday on Jan 30, add to reach a 4–5% position size (limit orders) because such moves historically offer 12–18 month IRR >20% for high‑quality land‑rich producers; set a time stop at 12 months if no fundamental recovery.
• Monitor three triggers in the next 30 days before increasing exposure: PIX pulp price change >±10% MoM, any Swedish government forestry policy update impacting harvest quotas by >5–10%, and Holmen disclosure of biological asset valuation methods or carbon credit monetization — take action within 48 hours of any trigger.