Bidding dynamics stabilize over previous three months, July marks first improvement of 2025

JLL's Global Bid Intensity Index indicates a stabilization and improving competitiveness in commercial real estate (CRE) bidding dynamics, with July 2025 marking the first month-over-month improvement since December. This signals a 'risk-on' shift among institutional investors, driven by ample liquidity, stabilizing borrowing costs, and firm property valuations, despite broader macro uncertainty. The trend points to a gradual recovery and increased capital flows in H2 2025, presenting an early-mover advantage for investors in growth-oriented sectors like living and retail, with office dynamics also showing improvement.

Analysis

According to JLL's proprietary Global Bid Intensity Index, the commercial real estate (CRE) market is showing clear signs of stabilization, with July 2025 marking the first month-over-month improvement in bidding dynamics since December of the prior year. This index, a leading indicator for transaction volumes, suggests a revival in market competitiveness and liquidity, driven by several factors including stabilizing borrowing costs, firm asset valuations, and a significant pool of institutional capital returning to the market. The report indicates a notable shift in investor sentiment toward a 'risk-on' posture, with participants increasingly accepting geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty as a baseline condition. Sector performance is uneven: the living sector continues to lead with elevated bidding activity, retail is improving on strong fundamentals, and office dynamics are strengthening due to growing bidder pools and lender support. However, industrial and logistics bidding has been dampened by supply chain concerns. JLL's outlook anticipates momentum will build through the second half of 2025, presenting what it describes as an 'early mover advantage' for those deploying capital before the recovery fully matures.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider increasing allocations to commercial real estate to capitalize on the potential 'early mover advantage' as proprietary data from JLL signals a market inflection point.
• A selective strategy is warranted, prioritizing capital in sectors with proven resilience and momentum like living and retail, while closely monitoring the recovery in office and persistent headwinds in industrial.
• The report's optimistic outlook on transaction volumes is a direct bullish indicator for JLL's own business performance, suggesting potential for revenue growth in the second half of the year.
• Monitor key confirmation signals for the durability of this recovery, specifically the continued stabilization of borrowing costs and the narrowing of bid-ask spreads across major asset classes.