Nio, XPeng Impress with Strong October Deliveries, While Li Auto Struggles

Chinese EV manufacturers Nio and XPeng reported robust October deliveries, with Nio reaching 40,397 units (92.6% YoY growth) and XPeng delivering 42,013 units (76% YoY growth), both exceeding the 40,000 vehicle mark. This strong performance has contributed to significant year-to-date stock rallies for both companies, with XPEV up 99% and NIO up 66.3%. Conversely, Li Auto experienced a steep 38.3% year-over-year decline in October deliveries to 31,767 units, marking its fifth consecutive monthly fall despite recent model introductions. Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus for Nio and XPeng, while Li Auto holds a Hold rating, with analysts noting potential downside risk for NIO but continued upside for XPEV.

Analysis

Chinese EV manufacturers Nio and XPeng demonstrated robust October delivery performance, significantly outperforming Li Auto. Nio achieved a record 40,397 deliveries, marking a 92.6% year-over-year increase and its first time exceeding the 40,000-unit threshold. XPeng also reported strong figures with 42,013 deliveries, up 76% year-over-year, maintaining above 40,000 units for the second consecutive month.

Nio's growth was bolstered by its Onvo sub-brand, with the L90 SUV surpassing 10,000 monthly deliveries for three months, alongside strong demand for the new ES8. XPeng's consistent performance, despite only 1% sequential growth, was complemented by aggressive global expansion into seven new markets across Europe, Asia, and Africa. These positive developments have driven substantial year-to-date stock rallies, with XPEV up 99% and NIO up 66.3%.

Conversely, Li Auto experienced a steep 38.3% year-over-year decline in October deliveries to 31,767 units, marking its fifth consecutive monthly fall. This underperformance is attributed to weak demand for its L-series EREVs, despite the recent relaunch of the Li i8 at a reduced price and the launch of the Li i6 pure-electric SUV, which has garnered over 70,000 orders.

Wall Street maintains a "Moderate Buy" consensus for Nio and XPeng, with analysts noting potential downside risk for NIO following its rally but continued upside for XPEV. Li Auto holds a "Hold" rating, reflecting investor caution amidst its delivery struggles. XPeng's upcoming AI Day on November 5 presents a near-term catalyst for its technological roadmap.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider differentiated investment strategies for Chinese EV manufacturers based on their divergent delivery performance and outlook, favoring Nio and XPeng's growth trajectories.
• Monitor XPeng's upcoming AI Day on November 5 for potential technological advancements and further global expansion cues, which could act as catalysts.
• Evaluate Li Auto's ability to convert its Li i6 order backlog into actual deliveries and reverse the declining trend in its core L-series EREV segment to assess future recovery potential.