Tesla Starts Driverless Robotaxi Tests: Time to Bet on TSLA Stock?

Tesla has taken a milestone step toward driverless robotaxis after two Model Y vehicles were spotted operating without occupants in Austin, supporting CEO Elon Musk’s target to remove safety monitors by year-end; the program has logged roughly 550,000 miles but remains geographically limited (Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix planned) and trails Alphabet’s Waymo, which operates a fully driverless fleet and reports ~450,000 weekly paid rides. Meanwhile, Tesla’s core auto business is under pressure—vehicle deliveries fell about 13% year‑over‑year in both Q1 and Q2 2025, Europe is a weak spot and BYD has pulled ahead in pure EVs—forcing discounting that threatens margins, even as Energy Generation & Storage (Megapack/Powerwall) has become Tesla’s highest‑margin, fastest‑growing segment with deployments compounding roughly 180% over three years. Optimus humanoid robotics is a high‑upside but execution‑dependent opportunity, and with TSLA trading at an elevated forward P/S (~14.48) and consensus 2025 estimates showing revenue and EPS declines, Zacks rates the stock a Hold, framing Tesla today as a long‑term vision play rather than an attractive near‑term fundamental investment.

Analysis

Tesla’s recent tests of two Model Y vehicles operating without occupants in Austin represent a tangible milestone toward CEO Elon Musk’s goal of removing safety monitors by year-end and lend credence to the company’s robotaxi timeline; the program has logged roughly 550,000 miles but remains geographically limited (Austin and San Francisco operational, Phoenix permitted, other cities pending regulatory clearance). Waymo remains the clear leader in commercial autonomy with a fully driverless fleet and roughly 450,000 weekly paid rides, which underscores Tesla’s technology and scale gap despite Tesla’s claims of lower-cost scalability. Automotive fundamentals are under near-term stress: deliveries fell about 13% year over year in both Q1 and Q2 2025, Europe is a notable weakness, BYD has pulled ahead in global pure EVs, and management warns that price cuts plus higher input costs will keep automotive margins pressured. Offsetting these headwinds, Energy Generation & Storage is Tesla’s highest-margin, fastest-growing segment—deployments compounded ~180% over three years and Megapack/Powerwall production ramps improve the margin mix—while Optimus remains a high-upside, execution-dependent project; valuation is elevated (forward P/S ~14.48) and consensus models show 2025 revenue and EPS declines (‑3% and ‑32%) with recovery expected in 2026, supporting Zacks’ Hold stance and implying Tesla is a long‑term vision play rather than an attractive near‑term fundamentals trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating a large new long position today given elevated forward valuation (P/S ~14.48), consensus 2025 revenue and EPS declines, and clear near‑term automotive headwinds
• Existing shareholders should hold selectively while monitoring catalytic metrics—removal of safety monitors, pace of driverless miles, city expansion approvals, and weekly paid-ride traction versus competitors—as these will materially re‑rate the autonomy narrative
• Increase attention to the Energy segment as a relative bright spot by tracking Megapack and Powerwall deployment growth and margin contribution, and consider modest exposure sized to the energy thesis rather than the auto cycle
• Manage downside risk by reducing position size or using hedges if quarterly deliveries continue to contract, discounts deepen, or consensus estimates are revised downward, and reassess on clear evidence of sustainable margin recovery or tangible robotaxi monetization