Interim report January – March 2026

First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 23% to 904.8 MSEK from 736.0 MSEK, while adjusted EBITA improved to 19.8 MSEK from 12.2 MSEK and EBITA to 14.5 MSEK from 7.7 MSEK. The company highlighted a strong contract base and an unchanged strategy, signaling confidence in future activity, though adjusted operating cash flow weakened to -35.4 MSEK from 86.2 MSEK. Overall, the results are solid but mixed due to the cash flow deterioration.

Analysis

This reads as a quality-of-earnings story rather than a pure growth story: demand appears intact, but cash conversion has deteriorated sharply. That usually happens when management is front-loading execution against a stronger backlog, which can support near-term revenue but leaves working capital, subcontractor payments, or milestone timing as the swing factors. The key implication is that the market may reward the top-line beat for a few sessions, but the more durable rerating requires evidence that cash flow normalizes over the next 1-2 quarters.

The strongest second-order effect is competitive: a company that can keep growth and profitability positive while absorbing cash strain can still take share in fragmented local service markets, especially if smaller rivals are funding growth with more expensive working capital. But if the weak cash flow reflects pricing pressure or project mix drift into lower-margin work, then the apparent contract strength is less durable than it looks. In that case, larger competitors with better balance sheets can use the tender season backdrop to bid aggressively and force margin discipline across the sector.

The biggest risk is that this becomes a working-capital trap: if revenue growth remains above 20% but operating cash flow stays negative, financing costs and covenant scrutiny can start to offset EBITA momentum within months. The reversal catalyst would be evidence that collections and job completion timing improve in the next reporting cycle; absent that, this is a sell-the-pop setup rather than a new long-duration re-rating. For now, the balance of probabilities favors near-term optimism but medium-term skepticism until cash generation catches up.

Consensus is likely overestimating how much of this is a structural improvement versus a timing effect from the tender season. The market tends to anchor on contract visibility and margin expansion while underweighting the fact that cash is the cleaner signal in project-heavy businesses. If management can sustain EBITA while converting cash over the next 2 quarters, the stock can rerate meaningfully; if not, the current optimism should fade quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If liquid and borrowable, look for a tactical short into post-earnings strength for 2-6 weeks; target fade if cash flow does not improve on the next update. Risk/reward: limited upside on continued optimism, but meaningful downside if the market reprices cash conversion.
• Use a pair trade: long higher-quality industrial/services names with consistent operating cash conversion, short this name or its closest local peer basket if valuation has already expanded on tender-season optimism. Time horizon: 1-3 months.
• If there is an options market, buy downside protection or put spreads 1-2 quarters out to express the working-capital reversal risk. Best payoff if the next print confirms cash remains negative despite stable revenue.
• Avoid chasing the headline beat until there is at least one quarter of cash flow normalization. Entry timing matters here: better to buy on proof than on hopes tied to backlog visibility.