MakeMyTrip (MMYT) Q4 2026 Earnings Transcript

MakeMyTrip reported FY26 gross bookings of $10.4 billion, IFRS revenue growth of 10.7% in constant currency, and EBIT of $156 million, while adjusted operating margin improved to 1.82% of gross bookings from 1.71%. However, the quarter was pressured by West Asia conflict-driven weakness in westbound international travel, a 6% decline in international passenger traffic, and a $17.7 million FX loss from INR depreciation. Offsetting factors included strong domestic demand, record AI adoption for Myra, $96.4 million of buybacks under the $100 million program, and over $782 million in cash.

Analysis

MMYT is becoming less of a pure flight proxy and more of a domestic multi-modal travel platform with a built-in hedge against air dislocation. The second-order effect of West Asia disruption is not just lower outbound demand; it is a forced migration of wallet share toward buses, cabs, pilgrimage travel, and short-haul hotel stays, which are stickier and better for repeat frequency. That mix shift should keep top-line growth above market even if air volumes stay soft for multiple quarters, because the company is monetizing urgency and budget substitution rather than waiting for a clean recovery.

The market is likely underestimating how much of MMYT’s margin resilience is now coming from product mix and automation rather than traffic growth. AI support deflection and Myra-driven conversion gains create a path to incremental operating leverage even in a muted demand tape, which matters because the business has historically been penalized for low absolute margins. The key watch item is whether AI and domestic substitution can offset rising customer acquisition costs if international weakness persists through the summer travel season; that is a months-long, not days-long, risk.

The bigger strategic catalyst is the India restructuring. Even if a listing is not imminent, the setup can force a valuation re-rating as investors start underwriting a cleaner domestic equity story with better access to local capital and a more visible onshore growth narrative. The contrarian angle: the FX hit and geopolitical pressure look noisy, but the real swing factor is whether the company can convert its platform breadth into a sustained share gain while competitors remain more air-dependent; if so, current caution likely understates normalized earnings power over 12-24 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long MMYT on weakness over the next 4-8 weeks: the setup is for slower near-term air growth but resilient consolidated demand; risk/reward improves if the stock sells off on headline geopolitical noise while domestic booking trends hold.
• Pair trade: long MMYT / short a more air-exposed regional travel or airline proxy for 1-2 quarters. The thesis is that MMYT’s mix flexibility and AI-led conversion should cushion downside better than single-mode travel exposure.
• Buy MMYT call spreads 3-6 months out rather than outright calls. This captures a re-rating if India-listing optionality and domestic substitution are recognized, while limiting downside if West Asia headwinds persist into the summer.
• If you want an AI-theme hedge, do not chase MMYT vs pure software names; instead use MMYT as a real-economy AI monetization case with measurable conversion and service-cost benefits. The trade works only if the market starts valuing AI as margin support, not just narrative.
• Take profits on any sharp rally tied to a quick geopolitical de-escalation unless international volumes re-accelerate for at least one full monthly print; the stock can rebound on sentiment, but the cleaner upside is from sustained mix gains, not a one-off peace pop.