Analysts Estimate Starbucks (SBUX) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Starbucks (SBUX) is anticipated to report a significant year-over-year earnings decline of 28% to $0.67 per share for the quarter ending June 2025, despite projected revenue growth of 1.9% to $9.29 billion. Although the company shows a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +5.66%, indicating a potential beat, its Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and a history of missing consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters suggest it is not a compelling candidate for an earnings surprise, potentially influencing its stock performance following the July 29 report.

Analysis

Starbucks (SBUX) is approaching its June 2025 quarterly report with a challenging consensus outlook, anticipating a 28% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.67 despite a projected 1.9% rise in revenue to $9.29 billion. This divergence signals significant expected pressure on profit margins. Analyst sentiment has been deteriorating, evidenced by a 2.27% downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days. While the company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a positive +5.66%, suggesting recent analyst estimates have turned more bullish and hinting at a potential beat, this is sharply contradicted by other key indicators. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), and its recent performance history is weak, having missed consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a notable -16.33% miss in the prior quarter. This combination of a poor quantitative rank and a negative surprise history makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat, rendering SBUX an uncompelling candidate for a positive surprise heading into its July 29 report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the forecast for a severe 28% earnings decline and conflicting technical signals, investors should exercise caution ahead of the July 29th earnings release due to heightened uncertainty and potential for volatility.
• The primary focus should be on management's guidance during the earnings call, specifically regarding the drivers of margin compression and the outlook for profitability, as this will likely have a greater impact on the stock than a marginal beat or miss.
• The stock's Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) and a poor track record of earnings misses, including a -16.33% shortfall last quarter, suggest significant fundamental headwinds, indicating that long positions carry elevated risk without a substantial improvement in the company's forward-looking statements.