ANZ hikes gold price forecast to $3,800 on solid investment demand

ANZ Group significantly raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce, anticipating a peak near $4,000 by next June, driven by robust investment demand. This bullish outlook follows gold's recent all-time high of $3,673.95, marking a 38% year-to-date gain, attributed to a soft dollar, strong central bank buying (including China's extended purchases), expectations of accommodative monetary policy, and elevated geopolitical tensions. Concurrently, the Australian lender also increased its year-end silver target to $44.7 per ounce, supported by gold's bull run and firm ETF inflows, as spot silver recently reached a 14-year high.

Analysis

ANZ Group has materially upgraded its price forecasts for precious metals, signaling a strongly bullish outlook. The bank now projects a year-end gold price of $3,800 per ounce, with a potential peak near $4,000 by next June. This revision follows gold's recent ascent to an all-time high of $3,673.95, representing a 38% year-to-date gain. The forecast is predicated on a confluence of factors, including the expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve through March 2026, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and enhance gold's appeal. This is coupled with robust physical demand, highlighted by central banks' estimated purchases of 900-950 metric tons in 2025 and China's consistent buying for ten consecutive months. Heightened geopolitical tensions and a soft dollar are also cited as key supports. Concurrently, ANZ raised its year-end silver target to $44.7 per ounce, driven by gold's momentum and firm ETF inflows, with spot silver having recently touched a 14-year high.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the multi-faceted support from dovish monetary policy, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical risk, investors may consider maintaining or increasing long exposure to gold and silver to potentially capitalize on the forecasted price appreciation towards ANZ's $4,000 and $44.7 targets.
• The bullish thesis is heavily dependent on the U.S. Fed's easing stance; therefore, closely monitor U.S. labor market data and Fed communications, as any hawkish pivot could undermine the low-yield environment supporting precious metals.
• Consider positions in gold and silver mining equities or related ETFs, as these instruments could experience significant margin expansion and positive re-rating if the commodity price forecasts materialize.