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Market Impact: 0.35

Affordability concerns are driving holiday belt-tightening

InflationConsumer Demand & RetailEconomic DataEnergy Markets & PricesElections & Domestic Politics

An AP-NORC poll (Dec. 4-8, 2025; n=1,146; ±4.0pp) finds a majority of Americans continue to report higher-than-usual prices for groceries, electricity and holiday gifts—while far fewer cite elevated gas prices (50% vs. 83% in Dec. 2022)—and about half say they are altering shopping behavior by hunting deals, delaying large purchases and cutting back on nonessential spending (48%); 40% are dipping into savings. Lower-income households are most likely to defer purchases and reduce nonessential spending, supply-chain issues are less of a concern than affordability, and overall sentiment is weak with two-thirds calling the national economy poor (only 30% say it is good; Republicans are the outlier at 56%). The survey signals meaningful holiday demand risk for retailers and consumer-discretionary companies, particularly where lower- and middle-income consumers are concentrated, and underscores persistent affordability pressures in the economy.

Analysis

An AP-NORC poll conducted Dec. 4-8, 2025 (n=1,146; ±4.0pp) finds a majority of Americans saying they pay higher-than-usual prices for groceries, electricity and holiday gifts, while reports of elevated gas prices have fallen to 50% from 83% in Dec. 2022. About half of respondents say they are actively seeking lowest prices and delaying large purchases, 48% report buying non-essential items less often and 40% are drawing from savings more than usual, signaling constrained near-term household spending. Lower-income households (under $50k) are materially more likely to defer big-ticket and nonessential purchases; supply-chain availability is less of a concern (56% say neither easier nor harder). Two-thirds describe the national economy as poor and only 30% see it as good, with a pronounced partisan split: 56% of Republicans describe the economy as good versus 16% of Democrats. Democrats report higher incidence of price increases (groceries 94%, electricity 72%, holiday gifts 72%) than Republicans (groceries 74%, electricity 59%, holiday gifts 54%). For markets, the poll supports the provided moderately negative sentiment and modest market-impact score (0.35): there is heightened downside risk to holiday demand and margin pressure for discretionary retailers concentrated in lower- and middle-income demographics, while staples and essential-service demand may prove more resilient. Relevant near-term data to monitor are retail holiday sales, retailer guidance on promotions/markdowns, and weekly spending trends versus the poll's margin of error.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately negative

Sentiment Score

-0.50

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Reassess exposure to mid‑price and discretionary retailers with heavy lower/middle‑income customer bases and consider trimming positions or adding hedges ahead of holiday sales releases
  • Monitor weekly retail sales, same‑store sales and retailer commentary on promotions and inventories as early indicators of markdown-driven margin risk
  • Favor defensive, cash‑flow‑stable consumer staples and discount retailers that can capture deal‑seeking behavior, while reducing exposure to higher‑margin discretionary names vulnerable to spending pullback
  • Watch consumer savings withdrawal trends and grocery/electricity price trajectories; sustained drawdowns or rising essential costs would justify extending tactical caution in consumer cyclicals