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Oil retreats on oversupply worries

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Oil retreats on oversupply worries

Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade, with Brent crude falling 0.2% to $63.93 and WTI also down 0.2% to $60, as persistent oversupply concerns and weakening demand overshadowed optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. The bearish sentiment is driven by increasing OPEC+ production targets, slowing global economic growth, and the disruptive impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors. Notably, Lukoil declared force majeure at its Iraqi oil field, and sanctions have led to a surge in oil stored on ships in Asia as China and India seek alternative suppliers, further exacerbating supply-side pressures.

Analysis

Oil prices experienced a 0.2% dip in early Asian trade, with Brent crude settling at $63.93 and WTI at $60, primarily due to persistent oversupply concerns and weakening demand. This bearish sentiment overshadowed the broader market optimism stemming from the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown. Supply-side pressures are intensifying as OPEC+ plans to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, contributing to an increasingly "bearish hue" in global oil balances, according to Ritterbusch and Associates. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors are further disrupting the market, with Lukoil declaring force majeure at its Iraqi West Qurna-2 field and a notable doubling of oil stored on ships in Asian waters. Demand weakness, driven by slowed economic growth in major oil-consuming countries, exacerbates the oversupply issue. The sanctions have prompted China and India to pivot towards alternative suppliers, introducing uncertainty regarding the absorption of Russian crude into strategic stockpiles or potential deferrals of purchases.

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