President Trump has publicly urged Ukraine to hold presidential elections now, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say he would be ready to stage a vote within 60–90 days if Western partners, notably the US, can provide the security guarantees and lawmakers amend legal restrictions that currently bar ballots under martial law; Ukraine’s constitution and public opinion, however, largely favor postponing polls until the war ends. Recent polls show Zelenskyy remains the most popular individual—Info Sapiens puts him at about 20.3% versus Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi at roughly 19% and military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov near 5%—but Zelenskyy’s support has eroded from earlier highs and both Zaluzhnyi and Budanov have signalled they do not intend to run or support wartime elections. The practical takeaway for investors is that any move toward an early vote would require significant Western security commitments and legal changes, create short-term political uncertainty around leadership and defence policy, and clash with the strong public preference to delay elections until after the conflict.
President Trump publicly urged Ukraine to hold presidential elections now, saying Kyiv is "using war not to hold the election," and President Zelenskyy responded that he is ready to hold elections within 60–90 days if Western partners, particularly the US, can provide security and lawmakers amend existing legislation that bars ballots under martial law. Under current law a ballot cannot legally take place while martial law is in effect; Zelenskyy has asked parliament to draft changes and has explicitly requested Western security guarantees to make a vote possible. Recent polling shows a materially changed landscape: an Info Sapiens survey puts Zelenskyy at about 20.3% and former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi at roughly 19%, with Kyrylo Budanov near 5%, down from Zelenskyy’s 73% second-round share in 2019; KIIS polling earlier this autumn showed 60% continuing support for Zelenskyy, and trust levels historically swung from 80% (2019) to 37% (Feb 2022) then 90% at the invasion’s outset. Zaluzhnyi and Budanov have publicly disavowed immediate political bids and oppose holding elections during wartime. Public appetite for wartime elections is limited: only 12% want elections amid the invasion, 22% prefer after a ceasefire, and 63% want elections only after the war ends, underscoring the substantive hurdle of securing both legal changes and broad domestic legitimacy. Market signals flag mixed sentiment and uncertain impact (sentiment_score -0.05, market_impact_score 0.25), implying that any move toward an early vote would raise short-term political risk, potentially affect defence policy continuity, and require monitoring of Western security commitments and parliamentary action.
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mixed
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-0.05
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