Lantmännen and business leaders in op-ed: The climate issue must be part of the election campaign

Ten companies and organizations published an op-ed in Aftonbladet urging politicians to give climate greater weight in the election campaign. They state climate policy should be treated as business policy—impacting competitiveness, jobs and Sweden’s security of supply—and call for clear, long-term rules to guide investment and corporate decision-making.

Analysis

Shifting electoral salience of climate increases the probability that Swedish policy will tilt toward procurement, carbon-intensity standards, and deposit/extended producer responsibility (EPR) rules within a 6–24 month window. That timeline favors capital-light providers of compliance services (collection, sorting, certification) and equipment vendors selling retrofit kits, while imposing margin pressure on downstream brand-owners with high single-use packaging exposure until they adjust sourcing or pricing.

Second-order winners include firms that own regulatory data flows and compliance as a service (RaaS) — think meter-to-invoice players and material-traceability software — because new rules create recurring demand for verification. Conversely, logistics-heavy incumbents that cannot easily reconfigure fleets or packaging formats will face sticky transitory costs (1–3% margin compression in first 12 months) and potential working-capital strain from inventory write-downs of non-compliant stock.

The main reversal risk is political: coalition complexity can delay binding rules, turning a near-term hype cycle into a multi-year retrofit story; a credible reversal catalyst is a budget agreement that excludes green procurement or weakens EPR language. For investors, this creates a short-term playbook (6–12 months) to own protocol and service operators and hedge brand exposure, and a longer-horizon (12–36 months) compounder trade for capital equipment suppliers that win retrofit contracts once rules are finalized.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long ABB (ABB) — 3–5% position, 6–18 month horizon. Rationale: grid/electrification kit demand and industrial retrofit work are the fastest ways for corporates to comply; upside 15–30% if procurement rules accelerate, downside ~15% if policy stalls. Use buy-and-hold or buy 12–18 month calls to leverage with defined max loss.
• Long Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) — 4% position, 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: deposit return and collection mandates create recurring revenue for sortation and reverse-logistics; expect 20–40% upside if national rules tighten, with c.20% downside on execution risk. Consider covered calls to improve carry after entry.
• Hedge/Collar on Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) — implement a 6–12 month protective collar (buy 10% OTM puts, sell 25% OTM calls) sized to cover 50–75% of exposure. Rationale: protects against accelerated packaging/EPR costs while capping high-end upside; collar likely near-cost-neutral and preserves dividend capture.
• Pair trade: Long industrial recyclers / short packaging-exposed bottlers — implement long recycler (TOM.OL or AMCR) and short a major plastic-heavy bottler (size to target 0.5–1% portfolio risk), 6–24 month horizon. Rationale: regulatory tightening benefits recyclers more immediately than brand-owners can reconfigure supply chains; exit if legislation is delayed >12 months or if bond yields spike, increasing financing costs for capex-heavy recyclers.