‘New world disorder’: Sudan, Palestine top IRC’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist

The International Rescue Committee’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist warns of a “new world disorder” — driven by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, shifting alliances, transactional deals and a surge of UN Security Council vetoes — that is deepening humanitarian crises, with Sudan and Palestine again ranked the most at risk. The report finds that 20 crises cover just 12% of the world’s population but account for 89% of nearly 300 million people needing aid, noting 117 million forcibly displaced, 40 million facing life‑threatening hunger and a 50% fall in humanitarian funding that has left responders unable to keep pace. Sudan, now in its third year atop the list, has seen an estimated 150,000 deaths, more than 12 million displaced, 33 million needing aid and 207,000 in catastrophic food shortage amid regional backing and illicit flows of gold and weapons; Gaza and the occupied West Bank face catastrophic suffering as Gaza has recorded more than 70,000 deaths, some 641,000 people experiencing famine or catastrophic food insecurity late in 2025, continued attacks and severely constrained aid access. The IRC cautions that growing impunity and attacks on civilians and infrastructure have made the past year the deadliest for humanitarians and risk making 2026 even more dangerous without urgent international action.

Analysis

The International Rescue Committee's 2026 Emergency Watchlist frames a "new world disorder" driven by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, shifting alliances and a surge of UN Security Council vetoes, with Sudan and Palestine ranked highest. The report quantifies the scale: 20 crises represent 12% of the global population but 89% of nearly 300 million people needing humanitarian aid, 117 million forcibly displaced, 40 million facing life‑threatening hunger and humanitarian funding down 50%, undermining responders' capacity.

Sudan tops the list for a third consecutive year amid nearly three years of conflict between the army and the RSF, which the IRC estimates has resulted in about 150,000 deaths, over 12 million displaced, 33 million people needing aid and 207,000 in catastrophic food shortage; the report highlights illicit gold outflows, arms inflows and complicity of unnamed regional backers (the UAE is widely accused and denies the claim).

Palestine faces sustained catastrophe with Gaza accounting for more than 70,000 deaths and an estimated 641,000 people in late‑2025 experiencing famine or catastrophic food insecurity; the IRC cites nearly 800 attacks since an October ceasefire deal (about 400 killed), militarized aid delivery and constrained access, and calls 2025 the deadliest year for humanitarians, signalling continued operational and reputational risk for stakeholders.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess and limit direct investment or operational exposure to Sudan, Gaza/West Bank and proximate jurisdictions given acute security, displacement and humanitarian funding shortfalls
• Increase portfolio liquidity and deploy tail‑risk hedges (short‑dated sovereign risk protection or volatility overlays) to guard against sudden regional escalations or refugee‑driven shocks
• Monitor donor funding flows, UNSC actions and major power diplomacy closely, as the 50% funding decline and vetoes materially extend crises and can alter sovereign credit and commodity dynamics
• Apply enhanced ESG and reputational screening to holdings with exposure to conflict‑zone gold, arms‑sensitive supply chains or operations that could face regulatory or public backlash