Airbus stock price target raised to EUR200 from EUR190 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital raised its price target on Airbus SE to EUR200.00 from EUR190.00, maintaining an Outperform rating, following the company's "relatively positive" Q2 2025 results, where adjusted EBIT margins of 9.8% exceeded the 9.3% consensus. Despite concerns over delivery schedules, including 60 narrowbody "gliders" awaiting components, Airbus maintained its full-year guidance, with RBC expressing confidence in a strong second-half performance driven by anticipated Q4 delivery surges, acknowledging the implied H2 strength as a potential risk.

Analysis

Airbus SE is experiencing positive analyst sentiment, underscored by RBC Capital's price target increase to EUR200.00 and Deutsche Bank's upgrade to €185. This optimism is fueled by the company's second-quarter 2025 results, which, despite flat revenue, featured an adjusted EBIT margin of 9.8%, surpassing the 9.3% consensus and indicating strong operational execution. The stock has already posted a significant 25.63% year-to-date gain, resulting in a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 31.91x. However, a key operational risk persists as Airbus maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, which now heavily depends on a substantial acceleration in second-half deliveries. This challenge is highlighted by a delivery pace in the first half of 2025 (just over 300 planes) that is below the required run-rate, and a backlog of approximately 60 narrowbody "gliders" awaiting components. While new orders, such as the 40-jet deal with LOT Polish Airlines, and potential tailwinds from increased NATO defense spending support the bull case, the investment thesis is contingent on resolving these near-term production and supply chain hurdles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor monthly aircraft delivery figures closely, as the company's ability to meet its full-year guidance hinges on a significant second-half ramp-up to clear the backlog of component-starved aircraft.
• Given the stock's 25.63% year-to-date appreciation and premium P/E ratio of 31.91x, the market has priced in significant optimism, making the shares vulnerable to any negative revisions to delivery schedules or guidance.
• The bull case is supported by multiple factors beyond commercial deliveries, including a new 40-jet order from LOT Polish Airlines and potential growth in the defense division from increased NATO spending, which could provide a buffer against near-term production volatility.
• Consider the execution risk associated with the second-half delivery surge; a failure to meet these aggressive targets could lead to a re-rating of the stock, warranting caution until Q3 delivery data provides more clarity.