Looking for Stocks with Positive Earnings Momentum? Check Out These 2 Oils and Energy Names

Zacks highlights its proprietary Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model as a key indicator for identifying stocks likely to beat consensus earnings estimates. This model, which compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus, has historically shown a 70% success rate in predicting positive earnings surprises when combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better, yielding average annual returns of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. The article points to Chevron (CVX) and EOG Resources (EOG) as current examples in the oil and energy sector, both exhibiting positive ESPs of +8.41% and +8.63% respectively, suggesting a strong probability of exceeding analyst expectations in their upcoming reports.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates a high probability of positive earnings surprises for Chevron (CVX) and EOG Resources (EOG). This quantitative signal is based on the premise that the most recent analyst revisions are more informed. Specifically, Chevron's Most Accurate Estimate of $1.74 per share is 8.41% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61. Similarly, EOG Resources' Most Accurate Estimate of $2.31 is 8.63% higher than its consensus of $2.13. According to the provided backtest data, a strategy combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better—a classification both CVX and EOG currently hold—has historically resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time and yielded average annual returns of 28.3% over a decade. Therefore, despite their neutral "Hold" ratings, both energy firms are flagged for potential upside catalysts ahead of their respective earnings reports on August 1 and August 7, 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider positioning for a potential earnings beat in both Chevron (CVX) and EOG Resources (EOG), given their significant positive Earnings ESPs of +8.41% and +8.63% respectively.
• It is important to weigh the positive earnings surprise signal against the companies' neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, which suggests their fundamental performance is otherwise expected to be in-line with the broader market, potentially tempering post-earnings upside.
• For traders focused on earnings season, the Zacks ESP model itself could be a valuable screening tool to systematically identify other potential surprise candidates to build a portfolio of pre-earnings positions.