ASM International stock price target lowered to €600 by Berenberg

Berenberg has lowered its price target for ASM International (ASMI) to €600 from €635, while maintaining a Buy rating, after the semiconductor equipment manufacturer's Q2 2025 orders and Q3 guidance fell below market expectations. This miss is primarily due to timing issues in investment from chip manufacturers, an anticipated slowdown in China orders for the remainder of 2025, and the US dollar's depreciation impacting future consensus. Despite these near-term headwinds, Berenberg views the reset expectations as derisking forecasts ahead of 2026, though uncertainty regarding capital expenditure spending in that year remains.

Analysis

Berenberg has adjusted its outlook on ASM International NV (ASMI), reducing the price target to €600.00 from €635.00 while reiterating a "Buy" rating. This revision is a direct response to the company's Q2 2025 orders and Q3 guidance, both of which fell short of consensus expectations. The shortfall is attributed to specific near-term headwinds, including timing delays in capital investments from key foundry and logic customers. Furthermore, ASMI anticipates a deceleration in orders from China through the remainder of 2025, a notable shift following a stronger-than-expected first half. Compounding these issues is the recent depreciation of the US dollar against the euro, a currency dynamic expected to pressure consensus earnings forecasts for both 2025 and 2026. Despite these challenges, Berenberg's maintained "Buy" rating signals a belief that the lowered guidance effectively derisks future forecasts, setting a lower, more achievable bar for performance. However, the report highlights that significant uncertainty persists regarding the capital expenditure cycle in 2026.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the near-term pressures on ASM International from slowing China orders and adverse currency movements, which have prompted a price target cut and could weigh on the stock's performance in the coming quarters.
• The maintained 'Buy' rating suggests a potential opportunity for long-term investors, as Berenberg's thesis is that the negative news has reset expectations, potentially derisking the stock ahead of 2026.
• Monitor future guidance on capital expenditure from the broader semiconductor industry, as the report explicitly identifies uncertainty in 2026 spending as a key risk factor for ASMI's outlook.