Earnings call transcript: Globe Telecom posts record H1 2026 revenue, stock rises 0.99%

Globe Telecom reported record 1H26 gross service revenues of PHP 85.4B (+6% YoY) and EBITDA of PHP 44.9B (+6% YoY) with EBITDA margin holding at 52.6% (above ~50% full-year target), while reported net income fell 11% YoY to PHP 11B due mainly to lower Mynt stake dilution gains and higher non-operating charges. The fastest-growing segment was corporate data, up 15% YoY to a 1H record of PHP 11B, alongside mobile data revenue growth of 10% to PHP 53.9B and ongoing fiber expansion (80,052 FTH lines added). Management kept full-year 2026 outlook unchanged (low-to-mid single digit revenue growth, ~50% EBITDA margin, CapEx < $1B) and declared a PHP 25/share quarterly cash dividend (payable Sept. 3, 2026). Shares were up 0.99% to $1,742, suggesting solid operating delivery but limited upside from the weaker bottom line.

Analysis

The equity is being priced too much like a bond proxy and not enough like a self-funded platform owner. Recurring cash flow is intact, but the real mechanism is that stable margins plus a visible dividend can support rerating if rates ease; the main thing that would stop that is capex outrunning monetization and forcing another year of depreciation drag.

The more important catalyst is the pending Mynt process, which can narrow the holding-company discount at AYALY and re-anchor valuation around a fintech stake rather than a mature telco multiple. If the IPO is delayed or weakly priced, investors will snap back to the slower-growth core and likely re-open debate on Philippine telco pricing power versus PLDT and DITO.

Second-order winners are fiber, enterprise IT, and data-center ecosystem vendors that benefit from a multi-quarter build-out, not just the operator itself. The loser is any weaker competitor forced into heavier subsidy and promo spend to defend share; the risk is that this turns into an industry margin war just as depreciation steps up, making the stock range-bound until a cleaner catalyst arrives.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long AYALY into the Mynt IPO window (1-3 months) as a sum-of-parts rerating trade; thesis breaks if the offering is delayed beyond Q4 or priced materially below the indicated range.
• If local-market access exists, buy Globe on pullbacks for dividend carry and pre-IPO optionality; keep size moderate and use a hard risk check if EBITDA margin trends back toward the low-50s from here.
• Watch PLDT and DITO CME as competitive hedges rather than outright shorts; if Globe's enterprise and broadband momentum accelerates for another quarter, expect pricing pressure to show up first in promotional spend and ARPU, not headline revenue.