Invitation to the presentation of NYAB’s Year-End Report 2025

NYAB will publish its Year‑End Report for 2025 on Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 07:30 CET and will host a live English audiocast at 10:00 CET where CEO Johan Larsson and CFO Klas Rewelj will present fourth‑quarter and full‑year financial information and significant events. The company, which provides engineering, construction and maintenance services across infrastructure, industrial construction and energy in Sweden, Finland and Norway, has ~1,100 employees and is listed on Nasdaq First North Premier Growth Market Sweden; a recording and teleconference with Q&A will be available after the event.

Analysis

Market structure: The immediate market event is a scheduled FY2025 release (NYAB) that typically creates 1–3 trading-day volatility for thinly traded, regionally focused contractors. Winners if NYAB prints stable/improving backlog and margin guidance: small/mid-cap Nordic infra names and specialty subcontractors (higher utilization); losers if guidance weak: suppliers with fixed-cost exposure (steel, heavy equipment) and highly levered peers as credit spreads can widen 50–200bp. FX and rates: a surprise miss could knock SEK by 0.5–1.5% intra-day and push domestic IG/BB spreads wider; commodities (steel, fuel) react modestly but inputs matter for margin guidance.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a large contract write-down (>SEK100m), client insolvency, or regulatory project delays – each could drive a 20–40% re-rating for a small-cap like NYAB. Time horizons: immediate (days around Feb 12) for volatility and guidance reaction; short-term (weeks) for backlog conversion and working-cap swings; long-term (quarters) for order intake trends and margin normalization. Hidden dependencies: heavy reliance on Swedish/Nordic public capex and a narrow project mix can amplify demand swings; labor cost inflation of 200–400bps would erode EBITDA materially.

Trade implications: Direct tactical play is volatility capture around the audiocast: if implied move <8–10%, buy straddle/strangle sized to 0.5–1.0% of AUM; otherwise prefer equity exposure via small-sized longs. Relative-value: long NYAB vs short SKA-B.ST (Skanska) to express regional niche upside vs global cyclicality; size ratio 1.3:1 to be dollar-neutral. Entry/exit: enter 1–2 trading days pre-report; trim half within 24–48 hours post-release and re-assess on backlog/margin datapoints.

Contrarian angles: Consensus often underweights recurring maintenance and energy-service revenue which can stabilize cash flows; if NYAB emphasizes maintenance growth >5% YoY, the market may be underpricing resilience. Conversely, an overfocus on headline EBIT could lead to an overdone sell-off if backlog and net cash remain intact — set a buy-on-weakness trigger at -15% intraday absent backlog deterioration. Historical parallel: Nordic small-cap contractors typically mean-revert within 3–9 months after earnings-driven dislocations if order books are stable.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 1–2% long position in NYAB (NYAB.ST) ahead of the Feb 12 FY2025 audiocast if liquidity allows; convert to a 1-week ATM call spread if options are available to cap cost. Add up to a total 3% position only if the stock gaps down >15% intraday and backlog/net cash are unchanged on the release.
• Implement a pair trade: long NYAB 2% vs short Skanska (SKA-B.ST) 1.5% (dollar-neutral) to express local infra/complex-project outperformance versus large diversified contractor cyclicality; rebalance after 2 weeks or sooner if NAV-impacting guidance is updated.
• Allocate 0.5–1.0% of portfolio to an earnings straddle/strangle on NYAB expiring ~1 week post-release if implied move is <8–10%; if options illiquid, buy a 15% OTM protective put (cost target <1% premium) to limit downside on existing exposure.
• Reduce exposure to residential/construction heavyweights (PEAB-B.ST, NCC-B.ST) by 1–2% and rotate into small-mid cap Nordic infra names if NYAB reports >5% YoY backlog growth and maintains net cash. Monitor three datapoints within 48 hours of release: backlog change (±% vs prior quarter), net cash/debt swing (SEK magnitude), and forward margin guidance (bps change).