Lamborghini 2025 profit dented by US tariffs and EV U-turn

Revenue rose 3.3% to €3.2bn with record deliveries of 10,747, but operating income fell to €768m from €835m (down €67m) and operating margin slipped to 24% from 27% (≈300bps). Lamborghini cited U.S. tariffs, currency moves and charges tied to scrapping its planned fully electric vehicle as key headwinds, and said it will not raise prices further this year. Management cancelled its 2030 EV sports car plan, will launch a plug-in hybrid 'Lanzador' in 2030 and continues in-house EV R&D, and withheld 2026 guidance citing Middle East war-related uncertainties.

Analysis

Luxury OEMs retrenching on full-EV roadmaps materially shifts near-term capital and input demand: lower battery-volume growth and delayed long-cycle capex, but higher wallet share for bespoke engineering, high-margin customization and hybrid powertrain suppliers. That reallocates profit pools away from bulk battery metals and towards premium mechanical and software suppliers — a multi-year margin tailwind for firms selling bespoke drivetrains, custom interiors and vehicle-domain compute modules.

From a supply-chain vantage, rising personalization increases per-vehicle semiconductor and software content more than unit volume does. A 200–500 euro increase in average content for ADAS, digital cockpits and personalization can move OEM gross margins by tens of basis points at scale and create recurring aftermarket/OTA revenue streams; incumbents with centralized AI-capable compute stacks are best positioned to monetize that shift. Conversely, firms solely exposed to commodity EV hardware (cells, raw lithium) see a pronounced demand-timing risk.

Key catalysts and tail risks are policy (tariff shifts), FX volatility and luxury demand sensitivity to geopolitical oil/logistics shocks; these can swing results within quarters but will crystallize strategic direction over 12–24 months. A clear counter-catalyst would be a demonstrably superior luxury EV drive experience (range, charging, sound/tactile feedback) from a competitor that forces a rapid reallocation of capex and consumer preference back toward EVs.

Contrarian read: the market underprices the secular increase in compute-per-vehicle even if EV penetration lags — semiconductor winners (centralized AI chips) capture recurring software monetization and retrofit spend that commodity battery suppliers do not. That makes selective long exposure to automotive-oriented compute leaders and short/avoidance of pure-play upstream battery names a logical asymmetric tilt for the next 6–18 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy NVDA (6–12 month horizon): initiate a directional position via Jan-2027 calls or a 6–12 month share buy. Thesis: secular rise in vehicle compute and personalization drives incremental TAM independent of EV unit cadence. Risk: alternative silicon entrants or a broad chip cycle downturn; objective return 30–80% vs option premium downside.
• Long RACE into EV debut (3–9 months): buy shares or Jan-2027 calls sized to portfolio risk tolerance. Thesis: first-mover luxury EV execution can re-rate premium OEMs that convert wealthy buyers to EVs; hedge with a 20–30% OTM put to limit headline-driven drawdowns. Expect binary outcome around product reveal — asymmetric upside if launch meets experiential benchmarks.
• Tactical long TSLA (3–6 months) with defined downside protection: buy shares and finance with short-dated OTM calls or purchase protective puts. Rationale: domestically-built high-end models are less exposed to tariff shocks and could capture share if European luxury demand softens; downside risk from broader EV demand softness — target 25–40% upside vs limited downside through hedges.
• Risk-off allocation: avoid/underweight pure upstream battery/raw-material exposure until OEM roadmap clarity and orderbooks for full EVs firm up (12–24 months). Reallocate that capital toward semiconductor and Tier-1 software/ADAS suppliers where compute/content growth is visible and monetizable.