‘Black Phone 2’ Rings Up $2.6M In Previews – Friday AM Box Office

Universal and Blumhouse's "Black Phone 2" generated $2.6 million in Thursday previews, projecting a $20M-$30M opening weekend against a $30M production budget, potentially offering a needed boost for Blumhouse in a challenging horror market. Concurrently, Lionsgate's "Good Fortune" secured $725,000 in previews, with expectations for an opening under $10M for its $30M production. Meanwhile, Disney's "Tron: Ares" concluded its first week with $43.4M, significantly underperforming its $180M production budget and pacing behind "Blade Runner 2049," underscoring a generally subdued autumn box office despite overall seasonal revenue being flat year-over-year.

Analysis

Universal and Blumhouse's Black Phone 2 generated $2.6 million in Thursday previews, slightly under the original's $3 million but comparable to Paramount's Smile 2 ($2.5 million). This positions the film for an estimated $20 million to $30 million opening weekend against a $30 million net production cost. The 74% Rotten Tomatoes score, while solid, offers Blumhouse a potential positive outlier amidst a "lackluster streak" for the horror genre.

Disney's Tron: Ares concluded its first week with a disappointing $43.4 million, significantly underperforming its $180 million production budget. This performance lags behind 2017's Blade Runner 2049 ($45.4 million first week) and anticipates a steeper second-weekend drop of -60%. This highlights a challenging reception for high-budget sci-fi releases.

The broader autumn box office is in "doldrums," with overall seasonal revenue flat year-over-year at $770.7 million. Lionsgate's Good Fortune recorded $725,000 in previews, projected to open under $10 million against a $30 million net cost, further illustrating market weakness. This, coupled with underperforming adult-skewing titles and the "shockingly bad" assessment of Warner Bros.' One Battle After Another relative to its budget, underscores pervasive weakness in theatrical demand.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should prioritize studios demonstrating effective cost management in film production, as evidenced by Black Phone 2's moderate budget and potential for profitability in a challenging market.
• Exercise caution with high-budget tentpole investments, particularly those with niche appeal, given the significant underperformance of Disney's Tron: Ares relative to its $180 million production cost.
• Monitor broader theatrical demand trends and studio strategies for managing production costs and marketing in a persistently weak box office environment, as illustrated by the struggles of multiple releases including Lionsgate's Good Fortune.