Exclusive: Brazilian businessman Tanure courts banks after hatching Braskem bid with Novonor

Brazilian businessman Nelson Tanure is in talks with banks to secure financing for his bid to acquire petrochemical firm Braskem from controlling shareholder Novonor, aiming to finalize a deal this year. Tanure's proposal involves Novonor retaining a reduced stake and envisions a larger operational role for Petrobras, which currently holds influence as a shareholder and key supplier; however, the offer faces skepticism from Novonor's creditors, who are considering alternative plans to restructure and sell the company's shares pledged as collateral.

Analysis

Brazilian businessman Nelson Tanure is actively pursuing an acquisition of petrochemical firm Braskem (BRKM5.SA), Latin America's largest, initiating discussions with key banks to secure financing for a bid intended to be finalized this year. Tanure's proposal, developed after Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's offer for Braskem collapsed, involves controlling shareholder Novonor retaining a significantly reduced stake of approximately 3.5%, down from its current 38.3%, and critically, envisions an expanded operational role for state-run oil giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA), an influential shareholder and key supplier. However, the bid faces considerable headwinds: Novonor's Braskem stake is pledged as collateral for some 15 billion reais ($2.7 billion) in bank loans, with the shares' current market value covering less than a quarter of this debt. Consequently, Novonor's creditors, including state development bank BNDES, view Tanure's offer with skepticism and are concurrently developing their own strategy, which involves pooling the collateralized shares into a private equity fund to restructure Braskem before a sale. Tanure, who has a track record of investing in companies undergoing contentious restructurings such as Light (LIGT3.SA) and Prio (PRIO3.SA), acknowledges the necessity of aligning with these creditor banks. Petrobras's CEO Magda Chambriard has expressed that Braskem is a 'very important asset' and that its current management is 'not what we want,' publicly applauding Tanure's offer as a potential 'solution.' Tanure's long-term vision for Braskem includes transforming its Camaçari complex into a hub for sustainable innovation and 'green' petrochemicals. The situation remains complex and uncertain, with the outcome dependent on reconciling Tanure's ambitions, Novonor's desire to exit its Braskem holding post-bankruptcy, Petrobras's strategic interests, and the powerful influence of the creditor banks.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in Braskem (BRKM5.SA/BAK) should closely track negotiations between Tanure, Novonor, and creditor banks, as a resolution could unlock value, though significant uncertainty remains due to creditor plans and the substantial debt overhang collateralized by Novonor's shares.
• Petrobras (PETR4.SA/PBR) shareholders should note the potential for an enhanced strategic role in Braskem, as favored by Tanure and Petrobras's CEO, which could be a positive development for Petrobras's petrochemical strategy if the bid succeeds.
• Potential investors should assess the high execution risk associated with Tanure's bid given the complex creditor situation, the roughly 15 billion reais debt collateralized by Braskem shares whose value has significantly diminished, and the creditors' alternative restructuring proposals.
• Consider that a successful acquisition by Tanure could lead to a strategic pivot for Braskem towards 'green' petrochemicals and increased operational influence from Petrobras, impacting its long-term growth trajectory and sustainability profile.