Second Quarter Report 2026

Q2 2026 net sales rose to KSEK 9,658 (vs KSEK 4,563) while losses persisted: EBITDA was KSEK -2,426 (vs -9,041) and EPS was SEK -0.02 (vs -0.04). Over H1 2026, net sales fell to KSEK 16,184 (vs KSEK 24,455) with EBITDA still negative at KSEK -6,704 (vs -8,370). CEO highlighted a growing tender/order pipeline (multi-year projects nearing completion) and improvements from AI in instrument identification and R&D efficiency, expecting orders over the next 12 months and limited near-term supply/tariff disruption.

Analysis

The main market mechanism here is not near-term revenue growth; it is conversion of a longer-dated tender pipeline into booked orders. If Serstech is truly getting embedded in customer specs, that implies a step-change in win probability versus rivals that are still competing on price or generic functionality. But the equity should not fully capitalize that claim until order timing is visible, because procurement-heavy businesses often show several quarters of optimism before cash flow catches up.

The more important second-order effect is working-capital leverage. Building inventory ahead of demand can improve fulfillment speed and service levels, but it also raises the risk of stranded stock if those multi-year projects slip again. That makes the next 1-2 quarters more about balance-sheet discipline than technology narrative; any stall in orders would quickly turn the current improvement story into a financing-risk story for a small-cap First North name.

Contrarianly, the consensus may be underestimating how much of the AI edge is an operating-efficiency story rather than a sales story. Lower R&D headcount growth can help preserve cash and extend runway, but that is not the same as durable rerating unless there is evidence of repeatable order intake. The key falsifier is simple: if the expected second-half order conversions do not show up by year-end, the stock likely remains range-bound despite better messaging.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing the print immediately; wait 2-6 weeks for evidence of order conversion or a follow-up announcement before adding exposure.
• If shares sell off on no immediate bookings, consider a small starter long only on the condition that Q3 cash burn narrows and revenue stays sequentially up; otherwise stay neutral.
• Use year-end as the catalyst deadline: if the expected multi-year projects still have not converted by then, cut any long exposure because the thesis shifts from growth story to execution risk.
• For event-driven accounts, trade the gap intraday by fading strength unless volume confirms that the market is pricing in a near-term contract win.