Best Copper Stocks: Goldman Sachs Names 2 Top Picks as Global Supply Tightens

Goldman Sachs sees a materially tighter ex-U.S. copper market through 2026-27, with global mine supply cut by about 350,000 tons and ex-U.S. deficits projected at 640,000 tons in 2026 and 170,000 tons in 2027. The firm says a January 2027 U.S. tariff could pull forward imports and push LME copper above $14,000/ton in 2H26, while a definitive no-tariff outcome could soften prices toward $12,800/ton. The note is constructive on Lundin Mining and Antofagasta, citing valuation support, high copper leverage, and growth catalysts.

Analysis

The trade setup is less about “copper up” and more about geography-driven scarcity: if U.S. buyers keep front-loading imports ahead of tariffs, the marginal metal is effectively being ring-fenced in the U.S., forcing the rest of the world to clear at tighter conditions. That creates a reflexive loop where ex-U.S. tightness lifts prices, but U.S. stocks become a latent overhang if policy shifts later; the market is paying for a shortage now while embedding a potential 2027 inventory release later.

The cleaner winners are the names with the highest beta to copper and the lowest execution risk. LUN.TO screens best because valuation is still anchored to a discount multiple while the company already shows operating leverage; that combination matters in a commodity tape where the market is rewarding visible cash conversion more than distant growth. Antofagasta is a scarcer quality asset, but consensus enthusiasm is weaker and the stock is more sensitive to any disappointment at Centinela, so it functions more as a higher-quality compounder than a pure torque trade.

The key contrarian point is that the bullishness may be underestimating tariff optionality. A no-tariff outcome does not just cap the upside; it could unwind the ex-U.S. deficit faster than the market expects because the inventory pull-forward reverses, which would pressure the back half of 2027 even if spot stays firm in the near term. That means the right expression is not naked commodity exposure, but equity longs with strong asset-level leverage and disciplined risk controls around the policy decision window.

The second-order effect is on relative performance within miners: balance-sheet strength and project credibility should outperform simple copper beta if prices stall near current levels. If the tariff announcement is delayed or ambiguous, expect a “buy the rumor, sell the policy vacuum” setup in the equity names even if LME remains supported, because investors will start pricing in the 2027 surplus risk well before it shows up in reported inventories.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long LUN.TO into the tariff decision window, targeting a 1-3 month move on policy-driven copper torque; use a tight stop if the market prices a definitive no-tariff outcome, because the 2027 surplus risk would compress the multiple quickly.
• Add ANTO as a lower-volatility quality copper exposure over 3-6 months; reward comes from scarcity premium and growth execution, but size smaller than LUN.TO because upside is more dependent on project delivery than pure copper beta.
• Pair trade: long LUN.TO / short a broader diversified miner basket for 1-2 quarters; thesis is that the market will pay up for copper concentration and operational leverage while penalizing non-copper earnings drag.
• If no tariff headline emerges, hedge copper equity longs with short-dated downside via put spreads on LUN.TO or ANTO into the announcement month; the trade is designed to protect against a fast de-rating rather than a gradual commodity selloff.
• Avoid chasing copper futures outright above the policy event; prefer equities until there is confirmation of the tariff path, since the best risk/reward is in levered operators with valuation support rather than the commodity itself.