Costco (COST) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Costco (COST) reported Q4 2025 revenue of $86.16 billion, an 8.1% year-over-year increase, which narrowly missed the consensus estimate of $86.18 billion. However, the company posted an EPS of $5.87, surpassing the $5.81 consensus by 1.03%. Key comparable sales metrics showed mixed results, with total company comparable sales of 5.7% slightly exceeding estimates, but comparable sales excluding foreign currency and gasoline prices at 6.4% falling short of the 6.7% estimate, although total worldwide warehouses surpassed expectations. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past month, returning -0.5% against the index's +2.7%, and currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Analysis

Costco's Q4 2025 results present a mixed operational picture despite strong bottom-line growth. The company reported a 14% year-over-year increase in EPS to $5.87, beating consensus estimates by 1.03%, but narrowly missed revenue expectations with an $86.16 billion top line that fell short of the $86.18 billion forecast. A deeper look at comparable sales reveals underlying nuances: while total company comps of 5.7% slightly beat the 5.6% estimate, core comps excluding fuel and currency impacts missed at 6.4% versus a 6.7% expectation. This weakness was concentrated in the U.S., where headline comps of 5.1% missed the 5.6% estimate, and in Canada, where headline comps of 6.3% fell short of the 7.3% forecast. In contrast, international operations (ex-Canada) and core Canadian comps (ex-fx/gas) demonstrated notable strength, beating analyst projections. The company's continued expansion is on track, with total warehouses at 914 surpassing the estimate of 913. This complex fundamental performance likely contributes to the stock's recent -0.5% return over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, and supports its current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) designation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the combination of an EPS beat with a revenue miss and mixed comparable sales, a neutral 'Hold' stance is warranted until a clearer trend emerges in core U.S. performance.
• Investors should closely monitor future reports for a re-acceleration in U.S. comparable sales, as this market's 5.1% growth rate lagged both estimates and international performance, representing a key area of concern.
• Evaluate whether the demonstrated strength in international and Canadian core comparable sales is sustainable enough to offset the relative softness observed in the U.S. market.
• Consider the stock's recent -0.5% underperformance relative to the S&P 500 as a reflection of market uncertainty; this may present a consolidation phase for long-term investors or a warning sign for those concerned about slowing domestic momentum.