Oil rebounds as fragile Gulf ceasefire, constrained Hormuz keep supply risks elevated

Oil prices rose as doubts about a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted, increasing near-term supply risk. Expect tighter physical crude balances and elevated volatility in oil contracts and shipping rates until there is clarity on the ceasefire and safe passage through the strait.

Analysis

Oil prices rose as doubts about a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted, increasing near-term supply risk. Expect tighter physical crude balances and elevated volatility in oil contracts and shipping rates until there is clarity on the ceasefire and safe passage through the strait.