Prediction: Joby Aviation Will Soar Over the Next 5 Years -- 1 Key Driver Behind the Rally

Joby Aviation could benefit from FAA approval of its first U.S. commercial flights in late 2026, with analysts projecting revenue growth from $53 million in 2025 to $458 million in 2028. The company also has catalysts in Dubai launch plans, a $131 million U.S. Department of Defense contract, and backing from Toyota, Delta, and Uber. The article is cautiously upbeat, but it notes the stock remains expensive at about 83 times this year's sales and faces regulatory and geopolitical delays.

Analysis

The market is still pricing JOBY like a science project, but the real inflection is not the first aircraft delivery — it is certification removing the financing overhang. Once the FAA path is de-risked, the stock should start trading on production capacity, route density, and unit economics rather than on optionality, which is why the upside can come in a burst rather than a smooth grind.

The cleaner second-order winner is UBER, not JOBY. If air-taxi bookings become an embedded mobility vertical, Uber gets a new take-rate stream with limited capex, while also reinforcing customer retention in premium urban corridors; that’s a much better risk-adjusted way to express the theme than owning the hardware pure-play outright. DAL also gains as the airport-to-city transfer use case matures, but that benefit is later-cycle and likely discounted only after visible utilization data.

ACHR looks like the relative loser on a near-term basis because investors will increasingly compare certification progress, range, and payload against JOBY’s operating narrative. If JOBY gets first-mover approval, Archer risks being valued more like a lagging follower than a category co-leader, especially if capital markets tighten and the sector is forced to prove commercialization faster. The supply-chain read-through is that Toyota-style manufacturing expertise becomes a moat; firms without a credible mass-production partner may see their cost curves questioned.

The key contrarian view is that the consensus underestimates how binary the FAA event is and overestimates how quickly revenue ramps after approval. Even with certification, fleet economics will likely be constrained by pilot availability, vertiport bottlenecks, insurance, and municipal permitting, so the market may be ahead of itself on 2028-style revenue scaling. That means the stock can re-rate on the approval headline, but sustained upside requires sequential proof of utilization, not just regulatory success.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long JOBY into FAA milestone windows via call spreads or a tight outright position; best risk/reward is a 6-12 month horizon where approval can re-rate the multiple before operating proof is required.
• Prefer long UBER vs long JOBY as the cleaner thematic expression; UBER captures commercialization optionality with lower regulatory and manufacturing risk, giving a better asymmetry if urban air mobility arrives slower than expected.
• Pair trade long JOBY / short ACHR on a certification-relative basis; the trade works if investors reward the nearer regulatory catalyst and punish slower execution risk over the next 3-9 months.
• Add DAL only on evidence of route partnerships or booking integration, not on headline optimism; upside is real but likely delayed, so the trade fits a patient 12-24 month horizon.
• If JOBY gaps on approval, consider taking partial profits into strength; the first move may price in several years of optimism before hard constraints on rollout become visible.