Missing From Apple's Announcements: iPad 12 With Apple Intelligence

Market structure: Apple is the clear winner — new lower-cost MacBook Neo ($599) and updated iPhone lineup broaden TAM and risk unit-share gains in entry PCs, while Intel (INTC) is the obvious loser as Apple migrates Mac volumes to A-series chips. Expect modest pricing pressure on mid/low-end Windows laptops and a 3–7% reallocation of shallow PC share toward Apple over 12–18 months if supply holds; TSMC and mobile SoC suppliers benefit. Cross-asset: stronger AAPL reduces safe-haven flows (modestly higher equities beta), likely 5–10bp upward pressure on 2s10s in risk-on episodes and lower AAPL IV post-announcement but pick up into next product windows.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory antitrust actions (material revenue risk >5% over 2–3 years), China demand shock (20% downside to iPhone unit growth), and TSMC capacity constraints delaying rollouts by 4–8 weeks. Immediate (days): event-driven IV compression; short-term (weeks–months): sell-through and ASP readouts determine guidance revisions; long-term (quarters–years): structural margin mix shifts if low-cost Mac cannibalizes higher-margin Macs. Hidden dependencies: services attach rate and accessory ecosystem (MagSafe, Apple Intelligence) drive margin leverage more than unit growth.

Trade implications: Direct play — overweight AAPL (2–4% portfolio) funded by trimming INTC (1–2%) and legacy PC suppliers; implement defined-risk options: buy 3–6 month AAPL call spreads 8–12% OTM sized equal to 1–2% notional, and buy 3-month INTC 10% OTM put spreads to hedge downside. Pair trade: long AAPL, short INTC ratio (e.g., 1.5x notional short INTC against long AAPL) to capture differential exposure to ARM migration. Rotate 3–6% capital from enterprise hardware suppliers into foundries/ARM ecosystem suppliers if sell-through >+10% QoQ.