ASML stock price target lowered to €700 by Deutsche Bank on EUV shipment concerns

Deutsche Bank lowered its price target for ASML Holding NV to €700 from €750, while maintaining a Buy rating, citing a reduced 2025 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) unit shipment forecast from "below 50" to 42 units due to execution issues at key customers Intel and Samsung. This adjustment follows ASML's narrowing of its fiscal year 2025 sales range to €30-35 billion and its recent retraction of its 2026 growth forecast amid tariff concerns, despite strong Q2 bookings of €5.5 billion. The semiconductor equipment maker faces a complex outlook, with potential benefits from easing U.S. chip export restrictions to China offset by customer delays and broader trade tensions, leading to varied analyst outlooks including downgrades from Jefferies and a lowered price target from JPMorgan.

Analysis

ASML Holding NV is facing a period of recalibrated expectations, with multiple analysts adjusting forecasts despite the company's strong recent performance. Deutsche Bank has lowered its price target to €700 from €750, primarily due to a reduced 2025 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) shipment forecast, which has been cut to 42 units from a previous estimate of "below 50." This reduction is attributed to execution issues at key customers, specifically Intel's challenges with its 18A process ramp for external clients and Samsung's potential excess HBM capacity and delayed Texas facility construction. This cautious sentiment is echoed by Jefferies, which downgraded the stock to Hold, and JPMorgan, which also lowered its price target. Reinforcing these concerns, ASML itself has narrowed its fiscal 2025 sales guidance to the mid-point of a €30-35 billion range and retracted its 2026 growth forecast, citing tariff and global trade uncertainties. These headwinds are partially offset by strong underlying metrics, including robust Q2 bookings of €5.5 billion, 17.7% revenue growth over the last twelve months, and a potential upside catalyst from any easing of U.S. chip export restrictions to China.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor execution updates from key customers Intel and Samsung, as their process ramp-ups and facility timelines are the primary drivers behind the revised 2025 EUV shipment forecast.
• Consider the near-term valuation pressure from lowered 2025-2026 guidance against the company's long-term strategic position, as evidenced by some analysts maintaining 'Buy' ratings despite price target reductions.
• Geopolitical developments, particularly concerning tariffs and U.S. chip export controls to China, should be watched as key variables that could materially impact ASML's growth trajectory beyond the current forecast period.