These 2 Auto, Tires and Trucks Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks Investment Research highlights its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool as a method to identify stocks likely to beat earnings estimates, based on recent analyst revisions. By comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, a positive ESP combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has historically predicted positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, leading to average annual returns of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. The firm cites Rivian Automotive (RIVN), with an 8.53% positive ESP for its upcoming August 2025 earnings, and Magna (MGA), with a 9.36% positive ESP for its November 2025 earnings, as current examples poised for potential beats.

Analysis

The analysis highlights a quantitative strategy, the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP), which aims to forecast earnings beats by identifying recent upward revisions from analysts. According to the provided 10-year backtest, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better has historically resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of 28.3%. Two automotive sector stocks, Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Magna (MGA), are presented as current examples fitting this model. Rivian possesses a positive ESP of +8.53% ahead of its August 5, 2025 earnings, driven by a Most Accurate Estimate of -$0.59 per share compared to a consensus of -$0.65. Magna shows an even stronger signal with a +9.36% ESP for its November 7, 2025 report, based on its Most Accurate Estimate of $1.44 versus a consensus of $1.32. Despite both stocks carrying a neutral #3 (Hold) rating, which suggests expected in-line market performance, the positive ESP metric flags them for a statistically significant probability of a near-term earnings beat.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor Rivian (RIVN) and Magna (MGA) closely around their respective earnings dates of August 5 and November 7, 2025, as the positive ESP signals a heightened probability of a positive earnings surprise which could act as a short-term stock price catalyst.
• Given that both stocks have a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), the positive ESP should be primarily considered a tactical indicator for a potential short-term trade rather than a signal for a long-term fundamental shift in outlook.
• It may be prudent to weigh the potential for a positive earnings surprise against the neutral 'Hold' rating, suggesting that while a beat is possible, the broader expectation is for the stocks to perform in line with the market.