The Signal That Preceded Weak S&P 500 Returns In The Early 2000s Is Back!

The note reiterates a hold on assets tracking major U.S. indices, arguing upside is limited as net U.S. equity issuance is set to rise. A historic IPO window and reduced buybacks from hyperscalers are expected to increase supply and weigh on equity returns. The message is broadly cautious for index-linked assets, but it is commentary rather than a direct market event.

Analysis

The note reiterates a hold on assets tracking major U.S. indices, arguing upside is limited as net U.S. equity issuance is set to rise. A historic IPO window and reduced buybacks from hyperscalers are expected to increase supply and weigh on equity returns. The message is broadly cautious for index-linked assets, but it is commentary rather than a direct market event.