SpaceX Shares Are Crashing. Here's the Price I'll Start Buying.

SpaceX stock has retraced to near its $135 June 12 IPO price after a sharp pullback (down 13.55% over the past month and 13.27% over the past week, last $139.14 after a 4.24% daily drop). Despite the decline, 24/7 Wall St. reiterates a $259.42 12-month target (~86% upside) for valuation support from Starlink scaling and the early-2026 xAI acquisition, but flags major near-term dilution/lockup-unlock overhang (first unlock potentially larger than the IPO float) with forward EPS at -$0.70. The article frames the trade as constructive if SPCX holds ~$135 but risk-off if it breaks $130 on heavy volume during the lockup window.

Analysis

This is a supply-over-demand tape first, fundamentals second. When a newly public name trades back toward its issue price while a large incremental holder base is still coming out of lockup, the marginal price setter is liquidity, not valuation, and that can produce an air pocket well below any sell-side target. For the next 2-6 weeks, the key variable is whether natural buyers can absorb distribution without a cascading de-risk from fast-money accounts that own it only for breakout momentum.

The more interesting second-order effect is not on SPCX alone, but on the public space basket. If investors start discounting the idea that a private leader can be marked at a premium while still funding heavy capex, ASTS is the more fragile public comp because its value is almost entirely forward monetization. RKLB is less narrative-sensitive and more visible on backlog/execution, so it should hold up better in a sector de-rating, even if it still trades in sympathy on bad days.

Contrarian case: the market may be overfocusing on the unlock and underweighting the fact that any credible proof of cadence or monetization can re-rate the stock quickly because there is no earnings anchor for bears to lean on. The bearish thesis is falsified if SPCX can reclaim and hold above the IPO area on rising volume for several sessions, or if the next catalyst cycle brings a meaningful commercial update. Absent that, this looks like a tradable dislocation rather than a clean fundamental inflection.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short SPCX tactically on any bounce into the $145-$150 area over the next 1-2 weeks; use a weekly close above $160 as the invalidation point. Target a move back toward the low-$130s as unlock supply is absorbed.
• Relative value: long RKLB / short ASTS for the next 1-3 months to express space-sector exposure with less lockup risk and better balance-sheet visibility. This works best if public space multiples compress; cover if SpaceX reclaims momentum and ASTS lands a material commercialization win.