Should You Buy Joby Aviation Before 2026?

Joby Aviation is advancing into the final stages of certification for its eVTOL air taxi, with company flight testing planned for late 2025 and formal "for credit" testing targeted for 2026; the firm remains pre-revenue and requires FAA-type regulatory approval to begin commercial service and generate revenue. Recent milestones — an inter-airport flight in August, three demonstration flights in October and the first eVTOL flight test in Dubai — bolster its safety case, but the company cautions that certification in 2026 is not guaranteed. If approved, Joby aims to carry its first passengers in 2026, making late-2025 a potential inflection point for investors, although material regulatory and execution risks persist.

Analysis

Joby Aviation is in the final stages toward FAA-type certification for its eVTOL air taxi and remains pre-revenue; the company expects Joby-pilot flight testing to start late 2025 and "for credit" testing to begin in 2026, with an aim to carry first passengers in 2026. FAA-type regulatory approval is required to commercialize operations and generate revenue, and management explicitly warns certification in 2026 is not guaranteed.

Recent operational milestones — an inter-airport flight in August, three demonstration flights in October, and the first eVTOL flight test in Dubai last week — bolster Joby's safety and operability narrative and support its certification case, but do not replace formal regulatory sign-off or completion of for-credit testing. Market signals rate sentiment as mildly positive and speculative (sentiment score 0.3, market impact score 0.35), reflecting modest investor enthusiasm but significant remaining execution and regulatory risk.

Key investor considerations are binary catalysts and asymmetry: successful completion of the late-2025 pilot-led test program and positive for-credit outcomes would materially de‑risk the business model, while delays or adverse test results would sustain high valuation risk given Joby’s pre-revenue status. The article discloses the author holds positions in Joby and Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor did not include JOBY in its top-10 picks, which is relevant when weighing the promotional tone of the coverage.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider only a small, speculative allocation if risk-tolerant given Joby is pre-revenue and depends on regulatory approval
• Increase position only after observable de-risking events such as the start of Joby-pilot flight testing in late-2025 or clear positive outcomes from 2026 for-credit testing or explicit FAA-type certification
• Monitor milestone disclosures closely — flight-test results, FAA communications and company shareholder letters — and treat each as a binary catalyst that should materially change conviction
• Factor in potential bias from media disclosures (author holds JOBY and Stock Advisor excluded JOBY) and cross-check claims against primary company filings before trading