Have Skyrizi and Rinvoq Successfully Saved AbbVie From Humira LoE?

AbbVie (ABBV) anticipates a return to strong revenue growth in 2025, despite Humira's U.S. sales declining nearly 50% in Q1 2025 following its loss of exclusivity. This growth is expected to be driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which saw ex-Humira revenue increase by 21% year-over-year due to expanded indications, particularly in IBD. AbbVie has raised its full-year guidance by $900 million and now projects combined sales of $24.7 billion for Skyrizi and Rinvoq, though competition in the immunology space is intensifying with key players like Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly expanding their portfolios.

Analysis

AbbVie is demonstrating a significant pivot in its revenue streams, successfully navigating the U.S. loss of exclusivity for its former flagship drug, Humira, which experienced a nearly 50% year-over-year sales decline to $1.12 billion in Q1 2025. The company's ex-Humira platform, primarily driven by the immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, posted robust growth exceeding 21% year-over-year in the same quarter, highlighting effective market penetration and indication expansion, particularly in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and atopic dermatitis. This strong performance has prompted AbbVie to increase its full-year 2025 combined sales guidance for Skyrizi and Rinvoq by $900 million to $24.7 billion. Despite this positive operational momentum and year-to-date share outperformance relative to the industry, AbbVie operates within a highly competitive immunology landscape, contending with established players like Johnson & Johnson (marketing Tremfya post-Stelara's LoE) and emerging threats such as Eli Lilly's Omvoh. From a valuation perspective, AbbVie's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 14.48x, marginally below the industry average of 15.12x but notably above its five-year mean of 12.38x. While the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share saw a slight decrease from $12.30 to $12.28, the estimate for 2026 has risen from $13.97 to $14.05, suggesting analyst confidence in sustained longer-term growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge AbbVie's successful execution in offsetting Humira's revenue decline through the strong growth trajectory of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which underpins the company's anticipated return to robust revenue growth in 2025.
• Careful monitoring of the competitive dynamics within the immunology sector, particularly the market penetration and impact of Johnson & Johnson's Tremfya and Eli Lilly's Omvoh, is crucial as this could influence AbbVie's market share and future growth rates for its key immunology assets.
• Evaluate AbbVie's current valuation, with its forward P/E of 14.48x exceeding its historical average, in conjunction with the minor downward revision in 2025 consensus earnings, while also considering the positive outlook for 2026 earnings and the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) before making new investment decisions or adjusting existing positions.