New Trump approval rating poll finds worsening support among MAGA base

An NBC News Decision Desk poll of 20,252 adults (Nov. 20–Dec. 8; ±1.9% MOE) finds President Trump’s approval at 42% and disapproval at 58%, a net three-point drop since the survey began in April; the share who “strongly approve” has fallen to 21% from 26%. Support has weakened within his core constituencies—strong approval among self-identified MAGA supporters slipped to 70% from 78% in April and among Republicans at-large to 35% from 38%—and the poll highlights growing economic dissatisfaction (more respondents say their finances are worse than a year ago) and rising pessimism about the country’s direction (64% say it’s on the wrong track, up from 60%). The results underscore eroding enthusiasm in the president’s base and renewed voter concern over the economy, developments that could constrain political momentum and shape policymaking and market sentiment going forward.

Analysis

An NBC News Decision Desk poll of 20,252 adults conducted Nov. 20–Dec. 8 (±1.9% MOE) places President Trump’s approval at 42% and disapproval at 58%, marking a net three-point decline since the survey series began in April and aligning roughly with The New York Times’ daily average (43% approval). The share who “strongly approve” has fallen to 21% from 26% in April while “strongly disapprove” has risen to 44% from 42%, indicating a modest erosion of intense support.

Erosion is concentrated in his core constituencies: self-identified MAGA supporters’ strong approval declined to 70% from 78% in April and Republicans-at-large who “strongly approve” slipped to 35% from 38%. Pollsters and other surveys attribute a mid-November dip to concerns about the economy—specifically inflation and cost-of-living pressures—while respondents were more likely vs. August to report worse personal finances year-over-year.

The poll also finds growing pessimism about the country’s direction (64% say the country is on the wrong track, up from 60%), a dynamic that could constrain political momentum and influence policy prioritization. For markets, the immediate takeaway is elevated political sensitivity around economic data and consumer sentiment, with a measured market-impact signal consistent with modest near-term volatility rather than a disruptive shock.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor near-term economic releases (CPI, consumer sentiment, retail sales) closely and trim cyclically exposed consumer discretionary positions if incoming data confirm the poll’s indication that personal finances are deteriorating
• Increase hedges for event-driven political risk ahead of major policy announcements or campaign milestones (use options or reduce directional leverage) given the demonstrated erosion in core base enthusiasm
• Favor defensive, cash-generative sectors and shorter-duration assets until a clear reversal in consumer sentiment and approval trends emerges, while keeping liquidity to exploit dislocations if political uncertainty spikes