Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) is slated to report results next week for the quarter ended June 2025, with consensus estimates anticipating EPS of $6.76 (+5.6% YoY) on $4.45 billion in revenue (+4.8% YoY). Despite a 4.22% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days, ABG's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.03% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 suggests a strong likelihood of exceeding consensus EPS expectations. This potential for an earnings beat, despite a historical record of only one beat in the last four quarters, presents a key factor for near-term stock performance.

Analysis

Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) is positioned for year-over-year growth in its upcoming quarterly report, with consensus estimates projecting a 5.6% increase in EPS to $6.76 and a 4.8% rise in revenue to $4.45 billion. However, this outlook is tempered by a notable 4.22% downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating that covering analysts have recently become more cautious. Despite this negative revision trend, a proprietary quantitative model suggests a high likelihood of an earnings beat. The company's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.03%, combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), historically points to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. This potential for an upside surprise is contrasted by a weak historical performance, where ABG has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once in the last four quarters, including a minor miss of -0.29% in the most recent period. The situation for ABG appears less robust when compared to industry peer AutoNation (AN), which also projects an earnings beat but benefits from recent upward estimate revisions and significantly stronger expected YoY EPS growth of 17.8%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the positive Earnings ESP of +1.03% and Zacks Rank #3, investors might consider a tactical position to capitalize on a potential earnings beat, which proprietary models suggest is highly probable.
• Balance the potential for a beat against significant cautionary signals, including the recent 4.22% downward revision in consensus EPS and a weak historical record of only one earnings surprise in the last four quarters.
• The most critical factor for a sustained stock move will be management's forward guidance; therefore, closely scrutinize commentary on business conditions during the earnings call before establishing or adjusting a long-term position.