Building permits, new home sales, and oil data to shape Wednesday markets

Financial markets are poised for key economic data releases on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, including August Building Permits and New Home Sales, which will provide insights into housing market health. Additionally, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report will offer crucial information on energy supply and demand, potentially impacting prices. Remarks from FOMC Member Daly are also anticipated, as they could signal future monetary policy direction, collectively influencing broader market dynamics.

Analysis

Market participants are focused on a pivotal set of economic data releases scheduled for September 24, 2025, which will offer critical insights into the housing and energy sectors, alongside signals on future monetary policy. The housing market is expected to show signs of cooling, with forecasts for August Building Permits at 1.312 million, down from 1.362 million previously, and New Home Sales projected to slightly decrease to 650,000 from 652,000. This anticipated moderation is further highlighted by a forecasted 3.7% month-over-month decline in building permits, occurring in a context where the prior MBA 30-year mortgage rate was 6.39%. In the energy market, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report will be closely watched following a substantial previous drawdown of -9.285 million barrels, with the new data holding significant implications for petroleum prices and inflation. Concurrently, investor attention will be on monetary policy cues, with a speech from FOMC Member Daly and the results of a 5-Year Note auction. The bond auction, following a previous yield of 3.724%, will gauge demand for medium-term government debt, while Daly's remarks will be scrutinized for guidance on the Federal Reserve's delicate balance between inflation and employment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the forecasted contraction in building permits and new home sales, investors should review exposure to the housing sector, including homebuilders and building material suppliers, for signs of slowing momentum.
• Energy traders should prepare for heightened volatility around the EIA inventory release, as a result deviating from expectations could cause sharp price movements in crude oil and related equities.
• Fixed-income investors should monitor the 5-Year Note auction's results, as weak demand could signal rising yield expectations and prompt adjustments to duration risk in bond portfolios.
• Pay close attention to remarks from FOMC Member Daly for any shifts in tone regarding the central bank's policy path, as this could serve as a catalyst for near-term repricing across asset classes.