BlackRock price target raised to $1,154 from $1,063 at TD Cowen

TD Cowen raised its price target on BlackRock to $1,154 from $1,063, maintaining a Buy rating, citing a bullish long-term outlook following the company's investor day and potentially conservative 2030 KPIs. The firm increased its EPS estimates for 2025-2026, reflecting mark-to-market updates and higher HPS-related fee-paying assets under management, now 5% ahead of consensus. BlackRock also announced a $5.21 per share quarterly dividend and highlighted growth expectations in private markets and technology/data, aiming for 30% of revenues by 2030.

Analysis

TD Cowen has significantly raised its price target on BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) to $1,154.00 from $1,063.00, maintaining a Buy rating, citing an increasingly bullish long-term outlook following the company's June 12 investor day. The research firm believes BlackRock's 2030 key performance indicators may be conservative, reinforcing its preference for scaled alternative investment managers. This optimism is supported by BlackRock's 14.23% revenue growth over the last twelve months. TD Cowen revised its 2025-2026 earnings per share estimates for BlackRock upward, now standing approximately 5% ahead of consensus, due to quarter-to-date mark-to-market updates and an increase in HPS-related fee-paying assets under management to $117 billion from $110 billion. The new price target implies a multiple of 23 times the revised 2026 earnings estimate. BlackRock, with a market capitalization of $151.55 billion, is actively expanding its alternative investments, private markets, and technology/data segments, projecting these to account for about 30% of revenues by 2030, and has introduced its Asimov AI platform. The company also announced a quarterly cash dividend of $5.21 per share and has a history of raising dividends for 15 consecutive years, offering a current yield of 2.11%. Other positive developments include Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintaining an Outperform rating and regulatory approval for its Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers joint venture in India. However, InvestingPro data suggests BlackRock is currently trading above its assessed Fair Value, and its ProPicks AI did not highlight it as a top undervalued stock.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the enhanced price target and positive analyst revisions from TD Cowen, reflecting strong conviction in BlackRock's growth trajectory, particularly within alternative investments and technology.
• Carefully monitor BlackRock's progress towards its 2030 revenue goals for private markets and technology, and the integration and performance of its HPS-related assets, as these are pivotal to sustaining the projected earnings growth.
• While BlackRock's consistent dividend increases and strategic initiatives are compelling, acknowledge that InvestingPro data indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value, suggesting a need to weigh the growth outlook against current valuation levels before making new or additional investments.